Voters will head to the polls in eight months to pick a winner in the 2024 presidential election.
For several months and at the current time, the frontrunning candidates are Donald Trump and Joe Biden, setting up a potential rematch of the 2020 presidential election.
Here's a look at the latest betting odds for the 2024 election.
What Happened: For many months the 2024 presidential election was a three-person race between Biden, Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Early into the primary season, DeSantis dropped out of the race and pledged his support to Trump for the GOP nomination.
The Republican race is down to Trump and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who may soon exit the race. The Democratic race is down to Biden, Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips.
U.S. residents can't actively bet with online sportsbooks on who the next president will be. Sportsbooks such as DraftKings Inc
DraftKings CEO Jason Robins told Benzinga previously he hoped someday political betting on big races such as president will be allowed in the U.S.
Speaking with Benzinga recently, Robins said political betting is something that makes sense and should be offered.
"It's something that customers clearly want," Robins said. "It's kind of silly you can't do it here."
Robins said there are many places offering political betting, but it's up to the regulatory bodies in the U.S. to make the decision.
"We're hopeful that's something we can offer to U.S. customers in the future."
The latest betting odds from Bet365 for the 2024 presidential election, as provided by Covers, show Trump as the strong betting favorite to win with odds of +100. This means that a $100 bet on Trump would pay out $200, which would be a profit of $100 if he wins the election. Biden follows in second place with odds of +225, paying out a profit of $225 on a $100 bet if he wins.
Coming in third place is Michelle Obama, wife of former president Barack Obama. The former first lady has given no public inclination that she plans to run in the 2024 election.
Here's a look at how betting odds have changed over time.
Along with the odds for the 2024 presidential election, Bet365 also has odds for the party nominations. Trump is a -2,000 favorite to win the Republican nomination, which would pay out a profit of $5 on a $100 bet if he wins. Haley ranks second at +800.
Biden is the favorite to secure the Democratic Party nomination at -250, with Obama and Newsom ranking second and third, respectively, with +400 and +700.
Why It's Important: Trump has topped the betting odds for several months in the race for the 2024 presidential election. Back in August, Biden was the favorite to win re-election.
Going back to the January 2021 inauguration, it was current Vice President Kamala Harris who was once the favorite with odds of +350, based on the plan that Biden would not run for re-election. Biden and Trump trailed Harris at the time at odds of +400 and +650, respectively.
When Biden announced he would be running for reelection, he became the betting favorite as many saw a close race between DeSantis and Trump in the Republican race knocking one of the candidates out.
Michelle Obama surges to third place in the latest betting odds with odds of +600. She had odds of +1,800 in November 2023 and was above +1,000 odds for all of 2023 before hitting the new third-place ranking.
Although several candidates are still participating in the primaries and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is running as a third-party candidate, it has frequently been a Democratic candidate occupying the third position. This trend stems from concerns about Biden's age and voters' continued search for a potential replacement candidate. Despite Newsom not formally declaring his intention to enter the race, he currently holds the third position in betting odds.
Haley surged up the betting odds for many months, going from odds of +5,000 in August 2023 and hitting +1,200 in November 2023. The Republican candidate, who recently won the Washington D.C. primary, ranks fifth behind Trump and three Democrats.
Polymarket, which calls itself "the world's largest prediction market," offers betting on several political outcomes, including the overall 2024 presidential election.
On Polymarket, users deposit to Polygon using USDC and can deposit with Ethereum or from a crypto account. Each betting market cashes out at $1 for the option that ends up being the winner.
The current projected odds on Polymarket for the 2024 presidential election are:
- Donald Trump: 53%
- Joe Biden: 32%
- Michelle Obama: 4%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 4%
- Gavin Newsom: 3%
- Kamala Harris: 2%
- Nikki Haley: Less than 1%
- Other Democratic Candidate: 1%
