The global coronavirus pandemic has been a reckoning for the global community in many ways, economically, politically, and so on. Particularly hard hit has been the global oil industry, which is facing a drop in demand and a skyrocketing inventory amid low demand, the likes of which it has never seen. With many different factors coming together to paint a dismal picture of the industry's tomorrow, experts are beginning to speculate that the oil industry may not come out of the pandemic particularly healthy.
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) on Monday voiced its opinion that the oil industry could be coming out of the coronavirus pandemic far leaner. "Big Oil's will consolidate the best assets in the industry and will shed the worst ... when the industry emerges from this downturn, there will be fewer companies of higher asset quality, but the capital constraints will remain," Goldman Sachs told Reuters.
Oil production remains consistent despite the lack of demand from consumers around the world, mainly due to the Saudi-Russian price war, and the reluctance of U.S. producers to lessen production. Analysts at Neuberger Berman predicted that this could result in a scenario last seen in 1998, with global oil inventories reaching capacity and driving prices to astronomical new lows. The lack of storage is already creating a problem for some grades of oil, which are priced in the negative already. The industry has reached a point where some producers are going to begin paying just to find storage for oil that they are reluctant to cease or cut production of.
This creates a nightmare scenario for the industry, where demand remains low for months on end as the world waits out the coronavirus. Still, the industry continues to produce oil in an already severely oversaturated market that will soon run out of capacity. Prices will hit astronomical new lows, and any relief that the market could benefit from is far enough down the line that some companies may not survive. Already, the prediction made by Goldman Sachs of a leaner oil sector with fewer companies seems to be coming true as the first of what may be many bankruptcies has been declared. Whiting Petroleum (NYSE: WLL), at one point a solid player in the shale oil industry, has declared Chapter 11 Bankruptcy. Whiting may just be the first, as many oil companies face the possibility of defaulting on their debt with limited abilities to refinance.
Relief will likely not come soon, even as the proverbial "curve" begins to flatten, and eventually new cases stop altogether, there is no guarantee that consumers will be confident to resume past activities immediately. It is entirely likely that any return to normalcy will be slow and drawn out, which will leave the energy sector contending with full inventories and drastically low prices for far longer than anticipated. Regardless of how quickly relief comes, it is hard to ignore that the oil sector seems set on a path of bankruptcy and a leaner field of competitors post-pandemic.