KeyBanc analyst Brandon Nispel said his September Apple Inc
The analyst's carrier survey indicates that iPhone 16 sales in September were slightly below store expectations and normal seasonal trends.
Demand for the iPhone 16 Pro and Max remained relatively healthy, owing to camera upgrades, but the base models were still weaker.
Store inventories are down to one day inventory outstanding (DOI), above prior year levels at launch. Apple AI was still a non-factor in driving near-term demand.
Key First Look Data reflects an increase in iPhone demand, with Apple Store iPhone spending growth of 15% year-on-year during the first ten days of launch and 7% growth Y/Y during the launch weekend.
Nispel's Key First Look Data shows indexed spending growth of 22% M/M in September, above the three-year average of 2%.
The Y/Y indexed spending accelerated to 7% from a 10% decline in August. In addition, when comparing the first ten days of new iPhone availability versus the comparable prior year, results were 12% Y/Y, though tailed off quickly.
The analyst noted that the results benefitted from an additional two days of iPhone availability compared to the prior year. In addition, he noted a benefit to iPhone 15 sales before the launch of iPhone 16 and initial demand that was modestly better Y/Y.
Nispel noted that his combined September carrier survey and Key First Look results were neutral for the Apple supply chain, which included Broadcom Inc
Nispel maintained his Overweight rating and a price target of $210 on Broadcom based on 36 times his fiscal 2025 consolidated EPS of $5.90. Broadcom is trading at a forward consensus P/E of 29 times, compared to a three-year historical average of 18.
The analyst reiterated his Overweight rating on Cirrus Logic with a price target of $165, based on 19 times his fiscal 2026 EPS estimate of $8.65. Cirrus Logic is trading at a consensus P/E of 16 times compared to its three-year historical forward consensus P/E of 14.
He maintained his estimates and Sector Weight rating on Qualcomm, which has a fair value of $167, based on 15 times his fiscal 2025 EPS of $10.89. Qualcomm is trading at a forward consensus P/E of 15 times, compared to a three-year historical average of 13.
Nispel reiterated his Sector Weight rating on Qorvo, which has a fair value of $100, based on 14 times his fiscal 2026 EPS estimate of $6.95. Qorvo is trading at 13 times consensus forward P/E, compared to a three-year historical average of 13.
The analyst remained Sector Weight on Skyworks Solutions with a fair value of $95, based on 15 times his 2025 EPS estimate of $6.25. Skyworks Solutions is trading at a forward P/E of 15 times, compared to a three-year historical average of 11.
Nispel's $216 fair value on Apple is based on 21.8 times his 2025 adjusted EBITDA versus big tech comps of ~18.5 times. Apple currently trades at ~22.7 times his 2025 adjusted EBITDA.
Price Action: Apple stock is up 1.43% at $224.85 at last check Tuesday.
