JP Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee maintained an Overweight rating on Apple Inc
In the third week of Chatterjee's Apple Product Availability Tracker, delivery lead times are showing trends, which, if continued, will explain the weaker lead times for the Pro models in the initial weeks as only an aberration led by a combination of better supply mix and delay in picking up momentum from higher-end consumers awaiting the release of Apple Intelligence, he noted.
The analyst said lead times, in the aggregate, have moderated as expected following the peak in the second week.
Still, Pro-model lead times remained steady for week three, contrary to the typical moderation in prior years.
Base models led the moderation in the last week for iPhone 16 series in aggregate, while lead times for Pro models were stable; iPhone 16 (Base model) moderated by seven days (versus moderation of 1 day from the second week to third week last year for iPhone 15), with moderation of 11 days for the Plus model (versus moderation of 1 day from second week to third week last year for 15 Plus), but lead times for Pro and Pro Max held steady over the last week relative to moderation of 7 days and nine days, respectively, from second week to third week for 15 Pro and Pro Max.
In aggregate, although overall lead times for the iPhone 16 models are still lower relative to iPhone 15 last year, the narrowing of the gap between the two groups (Base versus Pro) over the previous week and steady lead times for the Pro models highlight the likelihood that the initial slower momentum in demand for the Pro models is correcting itself with the release of Apple Intelligence drawing closer.
As per Chatterjee's U.S. Tracker, delivery lead times stabilized for Pro models while Base model lead times were moderate. The U.S. accounts for ~32% of iPhone shipments.
As per the analyst's China Tracker, delivery lead times dropped drastically for 16 Plus and moderately for 16 while remaining stable for Pro models. China accounts for ~20% of iPhone shipments.
As per his Europe Tracker, lead times for Base models were moderate, while Pro lead times were stable, similar to other geographies. Germany and the U.K. each account for ~5% of iPhone shipments.
Price Action: AAPL stock is up 1.81% at $231.92 at last check Monday.
