After months of Hail Mary interest payments and financial contagion fears, it appears that Beijing is finally ready to get its hands dirty when it comes to Evergrande, the world's most indebted property developer.
After the company issued yet another portent of default on Friday, one that later came true, officials from Guandong province formed a committee, to help direct Evergrande as it restructures its $300 billion in liabilities.
Meanwhile, Evergrande announced that it would join a committee that will "play an important role in mitigating and eliminating future risks," it said in a filing on Monday. The committee will be headed by Evergrande's founder, Yu Jiayin, along with three officials with ties to state-run or state-backed enterprises.
These and other signals of government support helped shares of Evergrande rally by as much as 8.8% on Monday.
"We see this as a positive development, and the uncertainty associated with the debt resolution of the second-largest developer in China has been finally removed," wrote analysts at Citigroup in a note.
But these developments were tempered by another emerging headline: Evergrande has essentially defaulted, a development that could trigger a cross-default on the company's $19 billion in offshore debt.
Reports emerged Monday that Evergrande had lapsed on two separate interest payments, amounting to $82.5 million. At the time, ClearStream, a bond-servicing company, said it could not process these payments because it had not received any money from Evergrande.
Despite no official announcement of default, Evergrande's shares retreated to yet a new record low on Wednesday on the rumors.
On Thursday, Fitch Ratings declared Evergrande to officially be in default, citing a lack of payment confirmation on the company's part, making Evergrande China's biggest ever- defaulter. Concurrently, Fitch declared Kaisa Group, an equally embattled developer, to be also in default.
Together Kaisa and Evergrande account for 15% of all offshore bonds issued by Chinese developers.
On Thursday, People's Bank Governor Yi Gang said that "the rights and interests of shareholders will be fully respected in accordance with their legal seniority," concerning the repayment of Evergrande's debts. In the same breath he said that Evergrande's inability to pay its debts will be resolved in a"market-oriented way."
Despite, Beijing's outward indifference, Monday's developments made it clear that the government will be taking an active role in Evergrande's
In September Evergrande employees, contractors and homebuyers openly protested outside the company's offices, highlighting the risk Evergrande's unmitigated collapse would pose to "social stability," early on.
Since then, the Peoples Bank has vowed to "protect the legal rights of homeowners," a clear indication that Evergrande's top priority will be finishing its 1.6 million unfinished, pre-sold apartments going forward.
At the same time, Chinese officials have taken decisive steps to support the broader property market. Reserve requirements for lenders have been cut, curbs on real-estate have been pulled and healthy developers now enjoy expanded access to credit.
Nevertheless foreign creditors should expect deep haircuts, given the government's stepped up involvement in Evergrande's restructuring.
Although, officials may not be so dismissive as to the concerns of Evergrande's international creditors, according to Han Shen Lin, assistant professors of practice in finance at NYU-Shanghai.
Chinese developers are increasingly relying on foreign credit, despite the rising costs, with Goldman Sachs estimating some $17 billion in international bonds will mature by April of next year.
"While addressing social downside is a priority," Mr. Lin said to the New York Times, "how the offshore U.S. dollar debt investors are treated will be an important signal of future China risk pricing."
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