As the world waits for the results of the US-Chinese trade negotiations, American retailers are hoarding inventory of Chinese goods and asking for quicker turnarounds on orders.
"A lot of people are competing for space right now so you're going to have some retailers hurt as a result," said Jonathan Gold, the NRF's head of Supply Chain and Customs Policy.
Retail inventory has grown at a record pace this year, contributing to an almost $43.1 billion trade deficit between US and China, the highest rate in 10 years, in October. Imports have increased by around 13.6% at major American ports to reach an aggregate of 2.04 million containers in October.
"It's very rare that retailers would commit to more inventory in advance," said Neil Saunders of GlobalData Retail. "If they don't manage to sell their holiday inventory, we'll see a real glut of it, and some discounting, in the new year."
As a result of potential discounting, aggregate demand may increase significantly next year, placing upward pressure on inflationary forces. This demand may be part of the Fed's rationale for their continue rate hikes and efforts to pump the brakes on the rapid growth of the US economy. This does not match up to the declining foot traffic rates, with the excess stock potentially creating large aberrations in an already unstable stock market and economy.
Excess supply has also amplified warehouse and transportation costs, which, if persistent in the long run, could actually counteract the high levels of inventory and shift the supply curve leftwards. This could exacerbate the demand-side inflationary pressures.
"Our warehouse is packed with stuff," said Mike Abt, co-president of private Chicago-based appliance and furniture store Abt Electronics. "Air-conditioners are just piled up in random places where they shouldn't be because we're running out of room. And we did that in anticipation of 15% more price increases."
Any mismatch in supply and demand will need to be addressed to maintain stability in the economy. Continuing the trade war could have devastating long-term impacts on the economy's health, putting retailers unable to build up inventories out of business and stimulating cost-push inflation. The oil market is in a similar state, with excess reserves putting many suppliers out of business and dampening commodity prices while squeezing margins.
"Our merchant teams are working on any kind of eventuality we might face and, as we always do, working with suppliers and how they think about costs," said a representative from Walmart
- https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/trump-tariff-war-china-sends-u-s-retailers-buying-binge-n950251
- https://www.wsj.com/articles/american-retailers-squeeze-chinese-suppliers-as-tariffs-start-to-hurt-1543406594
- https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/fearing-trump-tariff-escalation-retailers-pile-up-goods-at-unprecedented-pace-M4wnU4du4kCauP6uJRqvTQ/