Tensions are rising between NATO and the Russian Federation as NATO members begin shipments of U.S.-made military equipment to Ukrainian forces. Negotiations continue, but the continued escalation has many worried about how a hot war between Ukraine and Russia might unfold.
Regardless of the conflict scale, any sort of Russian military incursion into Ukrainian soil would have far-reaching, international consequences.
How would a potential war proceed?
It's hard to say without having access to the type of classified intelligence that an everyday writer can't get their hands on. However, things have changed considerably since the annexation of Crimea, and as things currently stand, Ukraine is ready to give Russia one hell of a fight.
Many Ukrainians have grown spiteful towards Russia, which has kept the country under siege since 2014, driving up military participation. Russia's 100,000 battle-ready troops would face stiff resistance, with Ukraine having an estimated 200,000 active troops, 50,000 guard troops, and hundreds of thousands more troops that could be called up from reserve. With the recent authorization of the U.S. federal government, NATO members have begun shipping stinger and javelin missile systems, providing Ukrainian troops with a cutting-edge means of countering jets and tanks, respectively.
Russia has the manpower and edge to land in Ukraine and secure some territory, but the conflict would likely become a costly slog rather quickly.
How would this affect the global community?
In a way, it is already affecting the global economy. The International Energy Agency and EU have blamed Russia for artificially prolonging the ongoing gas shortage in Europe purely over tensions involving Ukraine.
Given the economic sanctions and energy market disruptions likely to come due to a hot war, consumers will feel pressure at the pump far and wide. In general, a wider conflict could trigger an economic slowdown to some degree, especially as western powers economically isolate Russia should it push further into Ukraine.
Even as NATO members disagree on certain sanctions, wide-reaching options such as barring Russia from the global SWIFT payment messaging system have been left on the table.
Will negotiations work?
Once again, it's hard to say. Given how the annexation of Crimea and proxy war primarily appeared to be without any long-term plans, Putin may have overplayed his hand in this case. Even so, he now finds himself against the wall, already having demanded "non-starters" from NATO that Putin very well knows would be turned down.
De-escalation is still very much possible, though it's difficult to say with any certainty what form it would come in.