The most prolonged armed conflict in United States history came to an end this week as the last combat personnel left the war-torn state of Afghanistan. With the country largely under the control of the radical Islamic Taliban, debates now rage over the future of the deeply divided middle-eastern state.
From the state-building capabilities of the Taliban to the possibilities of reproach by international superpowers, one factor that will inevitably play a pivotal role in the recovery and future development of Afghanistan is the country's ability to recover economically. Given the Taliban's reputation as an international pariah, what does economic recovery for Afghanistan look like?
Governing Afghanistan
The ability of Afghanistan to maintain any semblance of a modern economy in the short term is entirely contingent on the Taliban's capabilities to establish and maintain diplomatic ties, given the current reliance of the country's economy on foreign aid. While such assistance only served as an ongoing "short term" solution, the sudden termination of foreign aid could be disastrous and dash any economic recovery attempts before they begin in earnest.
Further recovery will primarily be reliant on the state-building capabilities of the Taliban, as any functioning economy will require formal institutions to oversee and maintain it. Even should the Taliban secure foreign development aid or source the necessary resources to develop economic infrastructure, the track record of the self-proclaimed emirate in terms of governance is functionally non-existent; before the intervention of the United States in 2001, the only form of government that existed under the Taliban was a loose, informal militant state with no modern institutions.
Dire Consequences
The phrase "do or die" comes to mind when considering the consequences of the Taliban to stimulate a functioning economy and the international community to assist the people of Afghanistan (which, in and of itself, is complicated by the ongoing pandemic).
With many banks still closed across Afghanistan and millions of Afghans separated from their funds, a mammoth humanitarian crisis is looming over the ravaged country. Prices of essential goods have skyrocketed amid supply shortages, putting immense strain on what funds are available.
Afghanistan's medical system, already overburdened by the strain of war, is teetering on collapse. Without proper supplies and funding, the country's hospitals may soon run out of medicine to treat patients and funds to compensate overworked and strained staff.
While many Afghans continue to work in the hopes of their pay continuing when the economy stabilizes, many experts have warned that this practice is unlikely to continue for long. Without proper compensation, many working professionals in Afghanistan may opt to cease working, which could prompt a labor crisis in addition to other concerns.
A Way Forward?
The Taliban of today seems content to present itself as a more moderate form of the brutal, self-styled emirate that had terrorized the country of Afghanistan in the lead-up to the War on Terror. While there are plenty of concerns over the veracity of these claims, including mounting worries over the group's historically horrific treatment of women, reproach by the international community has remained a viable option.
While total reconciliation will likely be many generations off, it remains possible for the Taliban to attempt to establish formal relations with outside states genuinely. It would appear, at least currently, that the organization seems to realize that its economic hopes primarily rely on cooperation with foreign states.
While reproach is an option, it only remains viable insomuch that the Taliban can maintain a semblance of cordiality with the international community. The group's violent origins and troublesome history have left deep scars in Afghanistan and worldwide. Any diplomatic attempts will likely be tense, but the possibility remains for the Taliban to function similarly to other more isolationist states such as Iran or North Korea, which maintain relations with foreign powers to a degree, and maintain external economic ties.