Bernstein Research on Tuesday put its price target on Coinbase Global Inc.
The research firm highlighted Coinbase's dominance in the U.S. crypto market and projected robust earnings growth driven by regulatory clarity and expansion of crypto trading volumes back to American shores.
What Happened: "Coinbase is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the reshoring of global crypto markets to the United States," Bernstein analysts wrote in their report.
They added that Coinbase's entrenched leadership, with over 66% U.S. market share, places it as the premier platform to benefit from an increasingly crypto-friendly regulatory environment.
Bernstein expects Coinbase's earnings per share (EPS) to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38% through 2026, substantially ahead of Wall Street consensus estimates.
"We are about 30% above consensus on 2025 EPS estimates and approximately 61% ahead for 2026," the analysts noted.
The firm also pointed to the Trump administration's pro-crypto stance, including plans to make the U.S. the global hub for digital assets.
Policies such as a stablecoin bill and digital asset market structure legislation are expected to bolster Coinbase's business.
Bernstein emphasized that these regulatory changes should drive a return of offshore crypto volumes to U.S. markets, lifting Coinbase's revenues and offsetting competitive pressures from fintech and brokerage entrants.
Beyond trading, Bernstein praised Coinbase's growing non-trading revenue streams such as staking, stablecoin issuance and institutional custody services, which provide a buffer against the cyclicality of crypto trading volumes.
The report forecasts non-trading revenues to grow at a 31% CAGR between 2024 and 2026.
Why It Matters: Despite looming competition from firms like Robinhood and traditional brokerages, Bernstein maintains that Coinbase's "compliance-first approach and impeccable safety track record" offer a durable advantage.
"We believe COIN trades cheap at current levels relative to its EPS growth," Bernstein wrote, noting Coinbase's price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio is materially lower than peers.
The firm's valuation assumes a 21x price-to-earnings multiple based on 2026 earnings, which it says is in line with fintech and broker-dealer peers.
Coinbase stock has declined roughly 24% over the past year but has rallied in tandem with improving sentiment around digital assets amid institutional adoption and regulatory tailwinds.
"The regulatory dark cloud that hovered over Coinbase has lifted," Bernstein wrote, "and this provides a fresh runway for COIN's next leg of growth."
