The resumption of work by the United Auto Workers is predicted to cause a surge in November payrolls, counteracting the recent deceleration in U.S. job growth.
What Happened: The governmental data is likely to indicate a boost in payrolls by 180,000, climbing from a 150,000 progression in October, Bloomberg revealed. However, there is still an average job growth decrease of about 100,000 over the past three months when compared to early in the year.
The unemployment rate is predicted to stay at 3.9%, the highest since the start of 2022. This rate indicates a more tepid labor market and restrained wage growth, easing inflation concerns and reinforcing the perception that the Federal Reserve has put a stop to interest rate raises.
The employment report also anticipates a 4% rise in average hourly earnings in November from a year earlier, representing the smallest yearly increase since mid-2021.
Leading up to their policy meeting on Dec. 12-13, Federal Reserve officials will enter a blackout period. Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday brushed off increasing expectations for interest-rate reductions in the first half of 2024.
Despite the overall job growth slowdown, persistent hiring and wage increases have continued to drive strong consumer spending in recent months.
Why It Matters: Previously in October, General Motors Co (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F) and Stellantis (NYSE: STLA) reached a tentative agreement with the UAW, ending a six-week strike that significantly disrupted US auto production. The deal included a 25% hourly pay increase and cost-of-living allowances over the four-and-a-half-year contract.
However, the UAW initiated a campaign to unionize workers at 13 non-union automakers across the U.S. This move aimed to include nearly 150,000 autoworkers from major companies such as Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) and Toyota (NYSE: TM).