Oppenheimer analyst Brian Bittner reiterated an Outperform rating on Restaurant Brands International Inc
Management expects EBIT growth for 2025 to align with the long-term target of over 8%. Key expectations include segment G&A between $650 million and $670 million, approximately 19% TH-distribution margins, an ~$58 million benefit from the expiration of BK-US corporate advertising expenses, and a ~$19 million headwind due to BK China.
Adjusting the model, the analyst projects 2025E same-store sales (SSS) growth of +2.5%, which is slightly below the company's annual target of 3%+.
There are several variables at play, and while management did not give a precise SSS forecast for 2025E, they indicated that the first quarter will likely be the weakest of the year, impacted by a 100 basis points leap-day headwind, before easier comparisons come into play.
The analyst anticipates +1.8% growth in the first quarter of FY25, followed by an average of +2.8% for the second through fourth quarters.
QSR intends to offer an official unit growth forecast for 2025E once it reaches an agreement with its BK-China franchisee. For the time being, the analyst projects 2025E unit growth at +3.6%, slightly higher than the +3.4% growth seen in 2024.
EPS of $0.81 exceeded the Street's estimate of $0.79, and EBITDA also came in higher at $688 million, surpassing the expected $683 million. Profits from TH, BK, and FHS were better than expected, noted the analyst.
The analyst has adjusted '25E/' 26E EPS to $3.61/$3.97 (from $3.64/$4.03) and EBITDA to $2.96 billion/ $3.17 billion from $2.99 billion/$3.19 billion.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Logan Reich reiterated the Outperform rating on the shares with a price forecast of $80.00.
QSR's fourth-quarter report highlighted signs of improving trends, although expectations from the buy-side had risen before the results were released, noted the analyst.
On a positive note, same-store sales exceeded expectations across all segments, with the exception of TH, which was only 20 basis points below, likely better than anticipated, considering McDonald's Corp's
International performance stood out with a 190 basis point increase. Management remains confident in achieving long-term algorithmic AOI growth of over 8% in '25, despite challenges from FX and BK China.
On the downside, there was limited commentary on BK US trends for the first quarter, which is expected to remain a concern due to heightened competitive pressures, noted the analyst.
Price Action: QSR shares are trading higher by 0.31% at $66.04 at the last check Thursday.
