China's imports of crude oil in November were the second-highest on record. The nation's high demand for crude has caused the country to turn to the United States, as well as other exporters, to satisfy its oil needs.
China's oil imports have been on the rise for some time, and it has become clear that American exporters are benefitting. Two years ago, Congress lifted a ban on crude oil exports that had been in place for forty years. This November, 289,000 barrels of U.S. crude were received in China daily. While this may seem minuscule compared to the the 9.01 million barrels a day that China imported during the month, it still shows an notable uptick in American exports to the Asian superpower - an uptick that American exporters no doubt hope will only continue to increase.
America's ability to make inroads into China is largely because OPEC, Russia, and other oil exporters have been limiting their oil production in an attempt to level out a saturated market. A year ago, these parties capped crude production at approximately 1.8 million barrels a day below the highest levels for October 2016. Though the effect of this decision was not instantaneous, oil prices did begin to rise steadily after some months, supported by strong demand. However, when Hurricane Harvey shut down U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, it suppressed the price of U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude in comparison to Brent crude (the international benchmark). When this price drop occurred, China began to buy in American crude in bulk. And while China's current ravenous intake is unlikely to remain as strong as it is indefinitely, its demand for oil is still predicted to increase with time. Michal Meidan, head analyst for Asian energy policies and geopolitics at research consultancy Energy Aspects, stated regarding the issue that, "the U.S. certainly is poised to capture a lot of that growth.There is a huge amount of interest in U.S. crude to Asia broadly but to China specifically."
However, there are other international factors at play here. President Trump stated recently that he would not honor the "Iran Deal," as it's commonly called, an international agreement that lifted economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for Iran's agreement to cease substantial development of its nuclear program. The deal had allowed Iran to ramp up its crude production, and if it is revoked this production will be thrown into jeopardy. At the same time, tensions are on the rise between Iraq and the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan, which desires independence and exports over half a million barrels of crude daily. "Until recently, market participants have underestimated geopolitical risk because the discussion was all about oversupply," stated Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS Wealth Management. The aforementioned factors may contribute to there ultimately being less crude on the market, which would in turn drive up prices in the future.
Regardless, the U.S. stands to benefit as its output from shale fields in the heartland continues to rise.
- https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Rise-On-Solid-Chinese-Demand.html
- https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/08/oil-hungry-china-imported-record-levels-of-us-crude-in-november.html
- https://www.wsj.com/articles/strong-chinese-crude-imports-boost-oil-prices-1507890420
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-07/oil-set-for-weekly-loss-as-focus-shifts-to-u-s-output-from-opec