According to data compiled by Bloomberg, a recent ban on for-profit school tutoring has caused Chinese equities to shave off as much as $1.5 trillion in market cap over the course of just three days.
The shocking overhaul, announced last week, banned companies that tutor according to school rubrics from earning profits, raising capital, or going public. Companies now in violation of these rules must take steps to rectify the situation, according to the State Council.
The new regulations put former Wall Street darlings like TAL Education Group (NYSE: TAL), New Oriental Education & Technology Group (NYSE: EDU), and Gaotu Techedu (NYSE: GOTU), all but beyond the reach of foreign investors. Year to date, All three names are down 93% on average and have dipped by 70% over the past month.
Saturday's policy shift "makes these stocks virtually un-investable," JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) analyst DS Kim told Bloomberg, adding that for these companies, the "worst case has become a reality."
Out-of-school education has blossomed in China, with members of that country's emerging middle class using their newfound resources to help their kids get ahead educationally. But authorities contend that the practice exacerbates social inequities. According to an article posted on the Ministry of Education's website, after-school instruction has been "hijacked by capital," which "broke the nature of education as welfare."
In light of this policy shift and Beijing's other efforts to reign in the excesses at its top tech companies, investors began to liquidate hundreds of billions in stocks and other unrelated assets earlier in the week. The Nasdaq's Golden Dragon Index, which tracks 98 of China's top U.S.-listed equities, fell by 15% in the space of just two days. The yuan skidded to its lowest level versus the dollar since April, and the value of Chinese bonds sank.
In a snap call on Wednesday night, China's top brass tried to soothe the angst of investment bankers. Regulators stressed that the education industry was a unique case while downplaying the risk of similar reforms slamming other sectors.
Such messaging "shows that there isn't an intention to unilaterally destroy business models and businesses which are fundamentally aligned to the party's priorities for China's development," Adam Montanaro, an emerging market fund manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments, told Bloomberg.
In the meantime, the state-run press has tried to chock the recent rout up to a mere market adjustment. "The recent market decline to some extent reflects misinterpretation of policies and a venting of emotion. Economic fundamentals have not changed and the market will stabilize at any moment," reads a front-page report in the Securities Times.
Nevertheless, some investors remain concerned about Beijing's priorities, and whether business remains one of them. After all, the State Council all but wiped out a $100 billion industry with the single stroke of a pen. Despite Beijing's assurances, some analysts see this move as a grim omen for any other industry that might stray too far into the Party's crosshairs.
"There is no anchor for us to justify stock valuations now given regulation uncertainties," Dai Ming, a Shanghai-based fund manager at Huichen Asset Management, told Bloomberg. "In the past, the market was expecting normal regulations on certain sectors, but now it looks like the government can even tolerate killing a whole industry or some leading companies when it's needed."