Just when it looked like the pandemic was coming to an end due to a combination of vaccinations, boosters, and herd immunity, the Omicron variant of the coronavirus emerged in South Africa. In a matter of days, it quickly spread across the world.
Immediately, it put a chill on the stock market which was poised to break out to new highs. Growth-related assets took a big hit as well as there were concerns that a new round of lockdowns or restrictions on activity would be necessary. Overall, oil (NYSE: USO) dropped from $84 per barrel to $64, and the 10-year yield from 1.65% to 1.35%. Many travel stocks were also down between 25 and 35%.
In some ways the fears about Omicron have came true as it quickly became the dominant strain and has led to a spike in case counts all over the U.S. and seems to infect even vaccinated and boosted people. Cases have continued to surge over the holiday season, no doubt in part due to people traveling and visiting families.
And, most experts expect the peak to arrive sometime in the third or fourth week in January. It's certainly had an impact in terms of many schools being closed and businesses operating at less than full capacity due to a high number of workers being out.
But, the interesting thing is that travel stocks are already above their pre-omicron levels as is the stock market, oil, and the 10-year yield. This is because omicron has turned out to be much less virulent than previous strains especially in vaccinated and boosted people. In fact, the vast majority of people who have been hospitalized were unvaccinated with some previous medical issues. Many vaccinated and boosted people are completely asymptomatic and only learn they have the virus due to mandatory testing protocols in many places of work.
Another silver lining is that omicron seems to give protection against all the other variants while the other variants didn't provide protection against the old ones. Finally, the surge in infections is unwelcome for obvious reasons and a threat to vulnerable populations, but it does have the potential to quickly help the world reach "herd immunity" in a much quicker way than vaccinations and boosters and less dangerous than through the spread of more virulent strains.