It was a day some considered almost as seminal as the day Satoshi Nakamoto landmark paper which gave birth to Bitcoin. On Wednesday, Coinbase
Shares surged at the outset, climbing as high as $429.54, but closed at $328.28, a 14% decline. Nevertheless, Coinbase reached a jaw-dropping market cap of $112 billion at its peak, a valuation larger than any other exchange.
The fact that Coinbase reached such highs could be a signal of optimism on the street about the future of the crypto-space. However, the whipsawing seen in Coinbase's share price could be a reflection of uncertainty among investors.
For those who don't know, Coinbase is the second-largest crypto exchange on earth. Coinbase currently has 56 million users, and in the U.S. in especially, it's the go-to platform to purchase cryptocurrencies. As Bitcoin prices surged during the first 90 days of 2021, the company managed to rake in $1.8 billion in fees, an 847% increase over that period, according to MarketWatch.
Alex Mashinsky, chief of the crypto platform, Celsius Network, told MarketWatch that Coinbase is "more profitable than any major exchange and this validation puts most skeptics at a crossroads [of] having to reevaluate their denial and frustration with the disruption coming from all sides."
Coinbase bulls cite the company's listing and its breakout performance in the first quarter as signs that the company will benefit as crypto becomes more and more mainstream. Without a doubt, mainstream adoption of crypto is mounting. Corporations and institutional investors have gone from seeing cryptos as the main currency of the dark web to seeing these tokens as a legitimate means of investment. Visa
But bears note that Coinbase pulls in 90% of its revenues on fees from retail trades, which accounted for only 36% of transactions during the first quarter. The bear's theory goes that Coinbase's massive revenues and its exceptionally high fees will come under pressure as people turn to other, cheaper exchanges.
There's also the fact that 56% of trades on the platform come down to just two tokens: Bitcoin and Ethereum. This means that Coinbase's fortunes are pegged to the price of these two tokens. Prices that could still "go to zero," given the boom and bust cycle typical of cryptocurrencies.
In fact, as trading opened Thursday, Coinbase shares dipped after Bitcoin slid from record highs. This sort of whipsaw action in Coinbase's share price reflects uncertainty on the street about the platform's true value.
On the one hand, it's hard to imagine Coinbase as being more valuable than the world's largest stock exchanges. High-fee's and competitive pressure will likely eat away at revenues going forward. On the other hand, as crypto goes mainstream and more and people invest in it, theoretically, Coinbase could lower its fees and maintain its revenues.
As with most things, the truth of Coinbase's future lies somewhere in the middle of these two opposing arguments.
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- 2.https://www.marketwatch.com/story/should-you-buy-coinbase-the-valuation-is-ridiculous-11618254467
- 3.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-15/coinbase-gains-in-premarket-as-cathie-wood-funds-make-purchases
- 4.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-14/coinbase-floats-all-crypto-boats-with-wall-street-on-notice