U.S. consumer borrowing has seen three straight months of modest gains, with both March and April seeing $18.6 billion rises in borrowing. While credit card use dropped in April, that decrease was offset by increased auto and student loans.
Economists expected borrowing to increase by $20 billion in April according to a Wall Street Journal forecast. In March, economists had predicted a $26 billion gain.
The Federal Reserve borrowing category that includes auto and student loans rose by $20.6 billion in April, representing the largest increase in this category since June of last year.
Meanwhile, credit card spending saw a $2 billion decline. Credit card use peaked just before the pandemic came into full swing in February of 2020, but has since fallen by 12.2%. Between the Feb. 2020 peak and now, credit spending has only seen gains in three months, one of which was March 2021. In the midst of pandemic lockdowns and the loss of 22 million jobs, most consumers prioritized saving overspending.
However, now that the pandemic is waning and consumer spending has increased, in part, thanks to stimulus checks, Nancy Vanden Houten, senior economist at Oxford Economics, says that consumers are still hesitant to pick back up their credit cards.
"We expect growth in consumer credit will accelerate in the second half of 2021 as consumers dust off their credit cards, and reopenings and better health conditions incentivize stronger outlays," she told the AP.
Consumer spending makes up roughly two-thirds of all economic activity, and consumer borrowing is often seen as a representation of consumers' willingness to spend. In order for the economy to recover, consumer spending needs to continue to increase.
Economists appear to disagree about how promising the current speed of the rise in consumer spending is for the economy's recovery. While James Sweeney, chief economist at Credit Suisse, predicts that retail sales are about to plummet, Jonathan Silver, founder and CEO of Affinity Solutions, seems more willing to take an optimistic view.
"Our data tells us people are spending money," Silver said in an interview. He specifically stated that consumers are spending on categories that they avoided during the pandemic, like travel and entertainment.
Total borrowing has seen a 0.4% increase over pre-pandemic levels, according to the Fed. This metric doesn't include things like home mortgages or other real estate loans. This is the largest category of household debt, according to MarketWatch.