Mini Amazons (Nasdaq: AMZN) have been springing up all over the world. China has Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) and JD.com (NYSE: JD), while India has Flipkart. In Latin America, there is MercadoLibre (Nasdaq: MELI) and Africa has Jumia (Nasdaq: JMIA). All of these companies have been experiencing massive growth due to COVID, although they were growing quite fast prior to the coronavirus as well. COVID simply accelerated their growth timeline.
Another e-commerce and delivery giant, Coupang, which is based in South Korea is now filing to go public in the United States. Coupang has performed quite well in private markets as its valuation increased by many multiples over the past couple of years. It's raised money from well-regarded investors such as Sequoia Capital and Softbank (OTC: SFTBY). Softbank owns 37% of the company, and it seems to be repeating the success it had with its Alibaba investment.
Inside the Numbers
The company is looking to raise $1 billion, and some believe the company could fetch a valuation over $50 billion which would make it the second-most valuable IPO in the past year. Unlike many IPOs and SPACs which are pre-revenue, Coupang has an established business with revenues over $10 billion in 2020 with a double-digit, accelerating growth rate.
Coupang's S1 gives considerable insight into the company. Maybe the most impressive stat is its quarterly revenues quadrupling from 2018's Q4 to 2020's Q4 from $900 million to $3.8 billion. While the company had nearly $11 billion in revenue in 2020, it still is capturing a tiny slice of total consumer spending in South Korea which $470 billion in 2020.
This means the company still has room to grow especially as consumer spending is projected to increase by 15% over the next 5 years. Given its focus on growth, the company has been investing in growth rather than optimizing profits. In 2019, it lost $1.1 billion, while it lost $530 million in 2020.
Stock Price Outlook
Coupang is at the intersection of several bullish trends. Ecommerce stocks, particularly platform-based stocks, have done very well. The company also has exposure to payments which is another sector where stocks have also outperformed.
Finally, the stock's valuation seems fair especially given its accelerating growth rate. Another source of upside for Coupang is that eCommerce penetration hasn't reached the levels it has in the US and China, although it seems inevitable. Additionally, given its headstart on logistics, it's likely that new eCommerce companies may elect to sell on Coupang rather than build their own fulfillment system.