Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) warns a successful COVID-19 vaccine could unsettle markets and spark a shift from technology stocks into cyclical stocks. The probability of a viable vaccine being introduced as early at the end of November could underprice equity markets, according to investment strategists including Kamakshya Trivedi.
At the moment, it is a little too early for investors to aggressively position themselves to benefit from this change. There is also a good change the market could simply flatline. However if we will see a significant shift, it's likely we will see it happen in the next few months. Key driving forces like schools reopening across the United States, the evolution of the coronavirus, and the election date drawing closer, will provide a better look at how the stock market will shift.
Tech stocks are simply any stock in the technology sector, while the ever more popular "stay-at-home" stocks are just stocks that have done well due to everyone staying at home. E-commerce companies like Etsy (NASDAQ: ETSY), Shopify (NYSE: SHOP), and Facebook (NASDAQ: FB), and home-office companies like Zoom (NASDAQ: ZM) have done really well during the pandemic. Meanwhile, tech companies like Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) and Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) have felt the loss of business in their bottom line, but they're far from collapsing. Of course, bigger tech companies like Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) have been able to recover and adapt to the new norm, driving shares higher.
With all of these companies working to keep their value increasing, we also have the frontrunners of the vaccine race like AstraZeneca/Oxford University (NYSE: AZN), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA), Oxford University, and Pfizer (NYSE: PFE)/BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX). While Moderna has been backed by the Trump Administration, other companies like Pfizer, and partner BioNTech, and Johnson & Johnson are also working to come out with a vaccine. Most drugmakers expect to have vaccines ready by 2021, as long as no issues arise throughout all testing and regulatory approval stages.