Although it's still more than two years away, the early jockeying for the 2024 Presidential election is already starting. On the Republican side, former President Donald Trump remains the elephant in the room in terms of his popular standing in the party and ability to deprive other candidates of attention.
Still, there's likely to be some competition especially as the victor on the Republican side will likely face President Joe Biden who is struggling with a sinking approval rating, and a Democratic Party that lost support among working-class voters and people of color while losing support among independents since the 2020 election. There have been missteps including failing to pass the Build Back Better bill and raising the stakes on the voting rights bill but failing to secure passage. Other factors include the coronavirus remaining a problem and rising inflation.
This means that the environment is likely to be favorable for the Republican candidate especially in a polarized, political environment which means that Trump is certainly going to attract competition despite him doing his best to clear the field. His strongest adversary in the Republican field is likely to be Governor Ron DeSantis who has been becoming increasingly popular among conservatives for his handling of the coronavirus.
Further, DeSantis seems to have identified some areas of vulnerability between the Republican base and President Trump. A major factor is the base's hesitancy towards vaccines and rejection of all mandates. Trump's instinct is to take credit for the vaccines and promote them while DeSantis has taken a much harsher approach in terms of rejecting all mandates. This came to a head as President Trump promoted the booster shot, while Governor DeSantis refused to disclose whether he got the booster.
DeSantis has also come out against President Trump's initial lockdown when the coronavirus first made its way to the U.S. Of course, President Trump also has many other flaws with the biggest one being his failure to win the popular vote in two successive elections.
In early polling, polls show that Trump has an early lead on DeSantis, however, this is probably more due to name recognition. Trump's best bet may be another multi-candidate race like 2016 which splits the anti-Trump vote, while DeSantis' best bet is a two-man race where he can split off some of the Trump vote while consolidating the anti-Trump flank in the GOP.