Disney (NYSE: DIS) shares are down on Thursday after the entertainment giant's stock was downgraded by Cowen & Company (NASDAQ: COWN). Cowen cited concerns over the pandemic's impacts on the company, especially amid predictions that effects could last well into next year.
Cowen analyst Doug Creutz lowered his rating of Disney stock from outperform to perform while also slashing his price target from $101 to $97. The cut comes amid lowered expectations for Disney as the coronavirus pandemic rages on seemingly uninhibited in the United States. Specifically, Creutz pointed to the closure of movie theaters and the closures of Disney's theme parks.
Disney's theme parks were hit hard by the pandemic, being forced into full closure during at the height of the initial wave of infections. Making matters worse for Disney is the new surge of infections across multiple states, two of the hardest hit, California and Florida, being homes to Disney's two parks. Disneyland in California has remained closed amid a surge of infections, while Disneyworld in Florida has opened but with a limited capacity.
"We believe that at best, heavy capacity constraints will prevail until at least mid-2021, and believe there is a meaningful probability that the park could be forced to close again," says Creutz. "Disneyland remains closed and we expect that to persist due to California's more cautious approach in dealing with the virus."
In terms of Disney's movie releases, Creutz predicts that Disney won't move to make any significant releases at least until 2021 and will have a reduced list of releases even then. It's Creutz's belief that movie theaters will remain closed into 2021, and that Disney won't release its movies into a restricted market.
Worth mentioning, however, is that Disney has voiced its interest in alternative methods of distribution in the past. Amid the falling out between AMC (NYSE: AMC) and Universal Studios (parent company Comcast, (NASDAQ: CMCSA), Disney had voiced its intent to explore direct-to-digital releases. Disney has taken this option already with the release of its adaption of Artemis Fowl straight to digital, so it isn't entirely out of the question that the company may pursue this method more in the future.