DoorDash, Inc (NASDAQ: DASH) stock surged Wednesday after KeyBanc analyst Justin Patterson upgraded the stock from Sector Weight to Overweight with a $177 price target.
Patterson noted DoorDash as a clear share gainer in a secular growth category with emerging revenue streams from advertising and new verticals like grocery.
When Patterson initiated DoorDash before second-quarter earnings, he was constructive on DoorDash's fundamentals and long-term opportunity but cautious on near-term consumer spending data points, particularly around restaurants.
The analyst told DoorDash's second-quarter results eased many concerns about any significant impact from weaker consumer spending. Additionally, a broader set of reports showed resilience, and he left the second quarter viewing consumer softness as more localized than widespread.
His latest survey results reinforced that DoorDash is still distancing peers in food delivery and showing early signs of success with grocery.
In turn, the analyst noted that consensus is understating both Gross Order Volume (GOV) and EBITDA growth in 2025E (he is 2% and 3% above consensus) and 2026E (he is 3% and 6% above consensus). Rolling forward a 20 times Enterprise Value to EBITDA valuation to 2026E, Patterson reached a price target of $177.
After reviewing Patterson's third-quarter Mobility and Delivery Survey and model assumptions, he became more confident that DoorDash is gaining ground in its core and emerging verticals. This should sustain over 15% GOV growth and drive EBITDA of $3.5 billion by 2026E (~6% above consensus).
Patterson's latest survey showed ongoing gains in food delivery usage, with 39% using DoorDash the most, 23 points above Uber Technologies, Inc (NYSE: UBER), and in grocery, 8% using DoorDash the most, up by 300 bps since December 2023.
The analyst noted a strong core and ramp in new verticals should support his revised estimates for ~17% and 15% GOV growth in 2025E and 2026E (versus consensus of 15% and 13%) and EBITDA of $2.6 billion and $3.5 billion (3% and 6% above consensus).
Price Action: DASH stock is up 1.27% at $143.48 at the last check on Wednesday.