The Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) plummeted below 20,000, and by noon on Wednesday, it was below the closing point it had been at when President Donald Trump took office in 2017. The downward spiral of the Dow has gone mostly unchecked as the global economy stalls to an almost halt in the wake of the Coronavirus pandemic and mounting fears of a worldwide recession.
When President Trump took office in January of 2017, the Dow had closed previously at 19,732. After yesterday's downward spiral, the Dow had dropped to 19,727, entirely erasing all market gains made since the Trump administration took control. On Friday, the Dow dropped even lower to rest at 19,173.98.
The downward spiral is due to a myriad of factors, most of which stem from the coronavirus pandemic that has all-but crippled the global economy. Fears of the spread of the virus, along with government mandates to reduce travel, have driven the demand for global travel to record lows and left airlines worldwide with empty flights and empty pockets. Many airlines may require government assistance, or they will likely face bankruptcy. Oil prices have fallen well past previous bottoming-out estimates due to the glut in global oil supply from a lack of travel and the recently ignited price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Reduced demand and potential supply line disruptions across the board have driven stocks down in all sectors, reflected in the dismal performance of major indices such as the S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), the poor performance of which triggered a 15-minute trading halt during trading on Wednesday.
The poor performance of the global market and consumer confidence at an all-time low, fears of an impending global recession are mounting. Fears of a recession, caused by a bear market, are exacerbating an already aggravated market, somewhat ironically driving the economy closer to recession territory.
With the "Trump Bump" gone and experts warning of an impending recession, the obvious question can now be asked: what now?
While the initial response of the Trump administration and other world governments have been criticized for not taking the coronavirus outbreak seriously at first, the global community is now at least treating the pandemic with the seriousness that it deserves. So far, the Trump administration has taken basic steps to safeguard the economy, proposing a $1.2 Trillion relief package for the airline industry while the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to almost 0%. Meanwhile, a bi-partisan relief package has been assembled by members of Congress and is expected to pass soon and is expected to be approved by Trump. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has stated that the measure will include stimulus measures for American citizens, many of whom are facing reduced hours or no work at all due to business closures. The stimulus measure will deliver thousands of dollars to American citizens to help relieve those currently out of work.
Whether or not the stimulus and bailout measures will work and to what extent they will succeed if they do work remains to be seen. In a worst-case scenario, stimulus measures will lessen the blow of a global recession and help put the economy on a faster track to recovery. In a best-case scenario, a recession may be averted, and spending power will be at least partially returned to consumers, helping the economy to begin to recover. Restoring consumer spending power and consumer confidence will be instrumental in recovering at least some of the gains lost by the Dow and other major indices.