The Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DJI) dropped a whopping 300 points during trading on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the Sino-American Trade War might very well continue into 2020, despite earlier assertions that an agreement was "close."
During his visit to London on Tuesday, President Trump told reporters, "in some ways I think it's better to wait for after the election if you want to know the truth." This statement comes as a direct contrast with the President's continued earlier assertions that negotiations were proceeding well and that a compromise was "very close." The statement struck a resounding sour chord with Wall Street, which has been heavily affected by the trade war. Investors have been hoping that a conclusion would be reached well in advance of December 15, when new tariffs are expected to take effect. The recent announcement, however, casts doubts over any hopes of a reprieve.
Investors on Wall Street have been relatively hopeful over the course of the trade war, despite the ongoing tit-for-tat measures being enacted by China and the United States. In fact, similar drops have played out several times over the course of the trade war, with resurgences occurring whenever news of supposed progress of trade talks makes headlines.
Confidence is waning that relief is coming, however, especially as both investors and common American citizens feel the pinch. The continual enaction of tariffs, such as those being lobbed at China or the recently enacted tariffs on French, Argentinian, and Brazilian goods, have done little to benefit the United States, standing only to increase prices for consumer goods affected by tariffs. While economic strength is strong, especially for Wall Street, American families are coming under increasing financial pressure; 62% of Americans polled in a YouGov poll stated that their financial situation showed no improvement or became considerably worse.
Even though Investors are trying to remain optimistic, the market's reactions to Trump's constant announcements have not been anything to be optimistic about. Trump's announcements regarding new tariffs or the lack of trade war developments have been the catalyst for some of the worst single-day drops of major U.S. Indices in recent history, such as the recent plunge the Dow took.
The promises of the "phase one" of the supposed trade deal to end the Sino-American dispute are fairly weak and may do little to remedy the situation, especially if December 15 passes with no resolution or no delays in the enaction of new tariffs. With a heavily momentum-driven stock market, the President's tendency to make sudden rash decisions will only continue to hurt domestic markets and cause further drops for major indices such as the Dow, especially if the already questionable "phase one" deal does not have the effects desired by consumers and investors. Rather than planned decisions announced well ahead of time, many economic decisions from the White House are made through twitter or, in the case of the trade war announcement, in off-hand comments to reports, giving the market little time to prepare and very little wiggle room in its reaction.
The trade war continuing in 2020 stands to perpetuate the current atmosphere of heavy single-day drops caused by abrupt decisions and a directionless economic policy that has even veteran investors scratching their heads.