Sports betting company DraftKings Inc
Analysts look at app rankings, promotional activity and visit the company's Boston headquarters to get a feel of what's happening now and what's ahead.
Needham on DraftKings: DraftKings' rivals are stepping up efforts to gain new customers and market share.
Needham's Bernie McTernan, who has a Buy rating on DraftKings and a $44 price target, notes that several companies increased promotion activity in the third week of the NFL's 2023-2024 season.
"We observed new customer offers modestly more aggressive from CZR, Fanatics and PointsBet. All three moved to using bonus bets, a similar tactic from BetMGM," McTernan said.
Fanatics and its newly acquired PointsBet both have promotions based on the first 10 days of use - a move that could look to increase retention.
Meanwhile, Flutter Entertainment's
FanDuel passed DraftKings in the app store rankings last year as well, only it was during the fourth week of the NFL season, McTernan recalls.
Microbetting platform Betr was the 12th most downloaded sports app for the week - up from 30th in the previous week. This jump in the iOS rankings underscores how "consumers have a willingness to engage in microbetting, which could be another product driven leg of growth for the industry after parlays," McTernan wrote.
McTernan sees DraftKings as a leader in the online gambling market, which could be worth up to $35 billion.
"We see upside to our bull case industry TAM (total addressable market) for $50B," he added. Also, a loss by the University of Colorado and loss against the spread could have been a positive for sportsbooks in general, with the public heavily betting on the Deion Sanders-led team.
JMP on DraftKings: JMP Securities analyst Jordan Bender, who has a Market Outperform rating and a $39 price target, recently visited DraftKings' headquarters and analyzed early NFL betting data.
"The more even bet mix between game outcomes and prop bets acts as a positive to diversify overall results for the company," Bender said. "Quarter-to-date trends heading into football supported upside to estimates and September-to-date trends have resulted in higher-than expected hold, in our view."
Bender raised Q3 revenue estimates to $701 million, which is said to be ahead of a consensus estimate of $655 million from analysts.
"The business model allows for high flow-through as a result of positive hold and promotional outcomes. Street estimates could prove conservative."
The number one topic among DraftKings investors is competition, including PENN Entertainment
PENN plans to rebrand its Barstool Sportsbook to ESPN Bet before the end of the year and potentially benefitting from ESPN's built-in fanbase.
"The company acknowledges PENN will come out strong during its marketing campaign with the potential to hit double-digit market share out of the gate," Bender adds.
Still, DraftKings is a winner with its organic growth, new state entry, iGaming growth, superior product offering, and increasing margins.
DKNG Price Action: DraftKings shares trade at $27.72 versus a 52-week trading range of $10.69 to $34.49. DraftKings shares are up 151% year-to-date in 2023.
