The 2020 holiday shopping season broke records. This year is expected to be another record year of growth, according to Salesforce (NYSE: CRM) forecasts, especially when it comes to online shopping.
This holiday shopping season--which typically runs between November and December--is expected to top last year by 10% in the United States and 7% worldwide, according to Salesforce's insight, which is based on data from over 1 billion shoppers in more than 40 countries. In other words, online shoppers this season are expected to spend $259 billion in the United States and $1.2 trillion globally.
Beyond online shopping, consumers are also expected to be met with increased costs this holiday season due to rising global labor, freight, and manufacturing costs from the long-term effects of the coronavirus pandemic. Salesforce forecasts that shoppers will pay 20% more for gifts this year as both retailers and manufacturers are pressured with an additional $233 billion in costs.
This pressure in global supply chains is leading major holiday retailers like Target (NYSE: TGT), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart (NYSE: WMT), Macy's (NYSE: M) and Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) to launch pre-season deals in October to help offset the holiday shipping crunch that occured last year. Salesforce predicts that consumers will spend $31 billion online shopping in the U.S. and $141 billion globally before the seasonally Black Friday and Cyber Week discount events even begin.
With inventory scare and global supply chains still playing catch-up, we predict consumers will be extra eager for pre-sales. That means Black friday, while still important for you, will give way to something like a pre-Cyber Week with multiple Black Friday-like events. this should result in $31 billion in U.S. online spending and $141 billion globally before Cyber Week even begins.
For the investor looking to add e-commerce plays to your portfolio, exchange-traded funds (ETF) are the better option to gain exposure with less risk that can come from trying to pick-and-choose potential winners.
Great e-commerce ETFs include Amplify Online Retail ETF (NYSE: IBUY), which follows an index of globally-diverse companies that obtain 70% of more revenue from online sales; Global X E-Commerce ETF (NASDAQ: EBIZ), which holds global companies positioned to benefit form the increased adoption of e-commerce as a distribution model; and ProShares Online Retail ETF (NYSE: ONLN), which invests in global companies that mainly sell online or through other non-store sales channels, such as mobile or app purchases.