Evergrande, the world's most indebted property developer, managed to make a snap $83.5 million interest payment to foreign bondholders last Friday, staving off default, for now at least.
The payment came on day 29 of a 30 day grace period, and it represents just a tiny fraction of Evergrande's $300 billion debt.
Before the recent payment, Evergrande had abandoned plans to sell a $2.6 billion stake in its property services division. After the sale fell through, the company said it could not guarantee that it would "be able to meet its financial obligations."
Last month, fortunes at the property giant roiled stock markets across the globe when it issued similar warnings before missing a separate interest payment to foreign bondholders.
Following last Friday's payment, shares of the developer advanced some 7.8% in Hong Kong, although prices plunged shortly thereafter.
"The payment looks like an attempt to kick the can down the road," Wu Qiong, executive director at BOC International Holdings, told Bloomberg. "Nevertheless, it's positive and buys the time Evergrande needs for asset sales, strengthening the base-line case of an orderly restructuring."
Evergrande's next interest payment is due on Friday, but more critically, the company has some $7.4 billion in debts set to mature next year.
"Uncertainties remain if the Group [Evergrande] can sell assets to pay for the offshore debt. Investors are watching if Evergrande can make agreement with creditors on how to settle the debt," Banny Lan of Ceb International Investment Corp told Bloomberg.
As one of the largest real-estate developers in China, Evergrande stands as something of a bellwether for the real estate market as a whole.
For years the industry has been defined by rising debt loads and rampant speculation. Developers like Evergrande expected home prices to continue to climb and thus borrowed on the expectation of ever-rising profits. Based on this assumption, Evergrande developed the nasty habit of taking on more debt to pay off its existing debt.
Beijing, however, has eagerly tamped down on such excess, with regulators eager to whittle away at China's $27 trillion in corporate debt.
As part of their de-leveraging drive, regulators have put in place the "three red lines," which restrict developers' ability to borrow based on the health of their balance sheets. It just so happens that Evergrande is on the wrong side of all three, which goes a long way in explaining the developer's ongoing liquidity woes.
Declining home values and slumping sales further complicate the picture. Last week, Evergrande reported sales were down 97% year over year through September and mid-October, which is right in the midst of peak homebuying season.
Meanwhile, in September, home values fell for the first time in six years, according to the China National Bureau of Statistics, further limiting potential revenues for the property giant.
As the largest issuer of junk bonds in Asia, the risk remains that an Evergrande collapse could raise borrowing costs across the board for developers. Recently, Fantasia Holdings went belly up on some $206 million in debt, while Sinic Holdings got downgraded by Fitch when it also missed a bond interest payment.
So far, China's regulators have remained unflinching concerning Evergrande's fate, despite signs that its collapse could weigh heavily on the entire property market.
Last Thursday, an official at China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission denied the risk that Evergrande's collapse could choke off credit for other developers.
Meanwhile, the Peoples Bank of China has vowed to maintain a healthy property market, with its deputy governor, Pan Gongsheng, along with Vice Premier Liu He recently saying that risks to the market were containable and that the credit situation was normalizing.
Regulators in certain locales have already responded. Officials in Harbin have improved mortgage availability and given developers more access to capital.
However, as far as Evergrande is concerned, "anything that smacks of 'saving Evergrande' risks creating moral hazard that runs against the anti-leverage campaign," Arthur Kroeber, head of research at the economic research firm Gavekal Dragonomics, told the New York Times.
- 1.https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/13/investing-morgan-stanley-upgrades-china-property-despite-default-fears.html
- 2.https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/21/business/china-evergrande-bond-payment.html?referringSource=articleShare
- 3.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-22/-living-dead-evergrande-not-out-of-woods-despite-rushed-payment
- 4.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-22/evergrande-pays-bond-interest-due-saturday-local-media-says
- 5.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-21/china-developers-rally-on-confidence-from-regulators-remarks