Often, an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is the object of intense interest and speculation about what the Fed is going to do and say about the economy. These meetings have the ability to have big impacts on asset markets.
However, the November Fed meeting barely registered on anyone's radar due to three reasons. First, the election overshadowed everything else especially as the vote counting was continuing, and then about how and if President Donald Trump would concede. The second is the rising coronavirus case counts have reached crisis-like levels in certain areas and have even led to lockdowns in certain countries. This public health issue will have a bigger impact on the economy than the Fed policy.
Finally, the Fed has been very transparent about its policy, framework, and intentions. Further, it deployed a tremendous amount of its weapons during the spring so financial conditions continue to be supportive. The economy has also nearly surprised everyone in terms of its resilience and ability to heal and recover. In the third quarter, so far, S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) earnings have been 6% lower from 2019 while analysts were expecting 22%.
FOMC Meeting
At the November meeting, the FOMC agreed to keep rates between 0 and 0.25%. They described the economy as growing but well-off pre-pandemic levels of activity.
In the press conference, FOMC Chair Powell was once again insistent that the Fed has plenty of ammunition. He also advocated for more fiscal policy to deal with the crisis. He also said that the major variable in their forecast and policy decisions would be the path and danger of the coronavirus. He stressed, like in previous conferences, that until the virus was a threat, any growth would not be lasting.
There was the little market reaction to the FOMC statement as stocks held onto their gains following the release. Markets were positively reacting to the election resolution and the decreased chances of a contested election given Biden's strong lead in the Electoral College.
So far, the economy has recovered 11.5 million out of the 22.4 million jobs lost. Fed policy will likely remain at dovish levels until all these jobs are gained back. The pace of gains could accelerate with the positive vaccine news if travel can resume sooner than expected.