The Federal Reserve mid-December minutes indicate a lull in interest rate-altering activity, with the Fed halting any cuts or hikes for now.
Primary concerns are still the U.S.-China Trade war and economic uncertainty stemming from political instability. The current range stands at 1.5-%1.75%.
Fed officials "discussed how maintaining the current stance of policy for a time could be helpful for cushioning the economy from the global developments that have been weighing on economic activity," the minutes said.
Another big issue has been weak inflation. Before entering into a tightening cycle, the Fed needs to ensure that it has a good grip on where inflation in the U.S. is headed and whether it will continue to remain structurally low. This, coupled with the fact that global interest rates remain low- and even negative in some cases such as Japan and Europe- have compelled the Fed to remain cautious.
Ben S. Bernanke, the former Federal Reserve chair, said on Saturday that "a moderate increase in the inflation target or significantly greater reliance on active fiscal policy for economic stabilization, might become necessary." Mr. Bernanke gave a speech in San Diego at the economics profession's biggest annual meeting, citing concerns about the neutral interest rate dwindling over the past few years.
These issues stem primarily from the long-run decline of borrowing costs, with interest rates being a primary monetary tool to quell recessions. The lower the neutral interest rate, the less wiggle room the Fed has to be able to exert influence over the economy. This has led many to consider inflation targeting, a tactic that has been controversial in the past because cost-push inflation could cause a temporary blip in inflation.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester went on to say: "Some people ... say: 'I am willing to take the risk of a very low interest rate now,' and others say the problem with that is, if you do end up with a financial stability problem, the very people you are trying to help are going to be the ones that are hurt worse ... That is kind of the issue. It may be about a time-frame question."
With the new political developments in Iran and a rising sentiment of uncertainty and radicalism in the U.S., it may have been a wise decision for the Fed to not add to an already-rocky market.