Citizens and investors alike flailed on Friday as the average national gasoline price plummeted to its lowest since 2005.
Although oil prices have been wading in the low digits for a while due to increased inventory and competition from American oil firms (something OPEC has tried to subvert desperately), it was the Energy Department's announcement that domestic inventories of crude oil and gasoline were rapidly rising, even in lieu of increased driving this weekend, that caused prices to plunge.
On Wednesday, crude oil prices dropped by more than 5% to plateau at about less than $46 a barrel. "We're in no man's land as this tug of war of this rebalancing act continues to play out," said Jeff Kilburg, founder and CEO at KKM Financial.
The price drop could also be the result of Russia's declaration that it would oppose any further propositions of production cuts fueled by OPEC.
Oil and gas companies' stocks faced downward pressure in all realms. "Bloomberg Intelligence's index of independent exploration and production companies fell as much as 4.4%. Baker Hughes plunged 34% on its first day of trading as a unit of General Electric Co
That being said, burgeoning seasonal demand and a reduction in oil producer's revenue would inevitably affect prices as the costs of production processes would need to be sufficiently covered to continue delivering gasoline at this rate. Thus, if production decreases as a result of lower prices, this in and of itself would cause prices to rise as supply would fall.
Another reason for the fall of the price of crude oil could be the strengthening dollar. The strong dollar provided less incentive to invest in "greenback-denominated commodities such as crude oil", said an analyst. This, coupled with the performance of such a market so far, repels any investment in the industry out of fear of a drop in value as well as a failure to deliver upon predicted futures. Furthermore, with countries like Russia betting against OPEC, it only makes sense that investor confidence in the oil market has decreased, as even OPEC's last ditch efforts to revive prices are now being opposed.
Part of the problem arises due to the oil glut created by excess oil storage from which producers can obtain resources from instead of directly producing it. Now that those stores are bing depleted, driving season will emerge stronger than ever with production rapidly being expanded. However, if gasoline prices remain low and Americans continue to take advantage of this, consuming more and adopting more varied consumption patterns, not only could this cause oil prices to shoot up as supply won't be able to cater to demand, but it could also result in inflation as consumers have more disposable income to inject into other areas of the economy.
That said, it must be kept in mind that the American oil industry is seeing an increase in the amount of players and if oil companies continue to spawn at this rate, then perhaps even OPEC will not be able to stop oil prices from remaining low for a prolonged period of time, as demand will be adequately met. The more firms are producing oil, the smaller their total market share and subsequent revenue will be; this is something firms themselves don't want, and so an increase in barriers to entry in the form of more expensive technology or regulations may be expected.
- https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/09/business/energy-environment/oil-gas-prices-drivers.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fbusiness-energy-environment&action=click&contentCollection=energy-environment®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=15&pgtype=sectionfront
- http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/05/oil-prices-drop-more-than-3-percent-ending-bullish-streak.html
- http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-oil-sinks-after-russia-rules-out-further-production-cuts-2017-07-05
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-05/oil-slows-longest-win-streak-in-2016-as-russia-opposes-more-cuts