Weather conditions, surging demand, and declining supply have driven up the price of natural gas across the globe. With winter incoming and a decrease in demand nowhere in sight, things aren't likely to get better any time soon.
In Europe, natural gas prices are eight times higher than at this time last year, according to the Commodity Intelligence Services. In oil terms, natural gas is trading at $230 per barrel, up more than 130% since the start of September. Meanwhile, in East Asia, natural prices have risen by 85% to $204 per barrel
As a net exporter of natural gas, the U.S. hasn't seen the same price increases felt in other countries. Still, prices have increased to their highest point in 13 years, rising 47% since the beginning of August.
The increased cost of natural gas has led to an increase in the use and price of its alternatives: coal and oil. Along with being worse for the environment than natural gas, these alternatives may not be that much easier for energy companies to access.
In countries like India where coal is relied upon as a primary energy source, coal is now becoming scarce. Many coal-powered plants in India say they have enough coal to operate for two days or less. That increase in demand is expected to continue to inflate coal prices. Bank of America
One of the key reasons for the increase in energy prices is the resurgence in demand being felt across the globe following the worst of the pandemic. That demand isn't likely to recede anytime soon. In fact, the incoming winter weather is likely to make things worse.
"The current surge in European energy power prices is truly unique," a Société Générale energy analysts told the bank's clients this week. "Never before have power prices risen so far, so fast. And we are only a few days into autumn - temperatures are still mild."
Energy and geopolitics expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Nikos Tsafos told CNN that he thinks that the energy market has broken away from the fundamentals of supply and demand thanks to rising consumer anxiety.
"A lot of it is feeding off of fear about what the winter's going to look like," Tsafos said.
That fear hasn't been helped by a decline in Russian gas exports. In China, efforts to convert to green energy have already led to rolling blackouts.
Even in countries without blackouts, energy bills are expected to spike. Some governments are likely to place caps on energy prices or a ban on disconnections. The European Union has already received calls to ban utility disconnections.
"This price shock is an unexpected crisis at a critical juncture," Kadri Simson, E.U. energy chief, said. "The immediate priority should be to mitigate social impacts and protect vulnerable households."
Increasing natural gas prices are exacerbating overall inflation, as well. As mentioned above, inflation was already a concern thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic. According to Jim Burkhard, head of the IHS Markit's research on crude oil, energy, and mobility, there's "no immediate relief in sight."
