Analysts at Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) are taking a more bullish on the economy and believe that the worst of the economic impact of the Coronavirus pandemic may have already passed. Goldman Sachs believes that the stock market may have a more optimistic immediate future ahead of it.
Goldman Sachs cited the intervention of the United States government as a significant contributor to their bullish view on the market's future. The $2 trillion CARES act, the result of a bipartisan effort to bring relief to the U.S. Economy, brought not only financial assistance to struggling sectors, such as the airline sector, but provided support to the unemployment system, small business loans, and direct payments to American citizens. "The Fed and Congress have precluded the prospect of a complete economic collapse," said David Kostin, the leader of Goldman Sachs' team that produced the analysis. "These policy actions mean our previous near-term [for the S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY)] downside of 2,000 is no longer likely."
Other firms shared Goldman Sachs' bullish outlook. Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) analyst Mike Wilson raised his pessimistic, likely, and optimistic outlooks for the S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) from 2,400, 2,700 and 3,000 to 2,500, 3,000 and 3,250, respectively. "Our base case is that the market already had its successful re-test the week of March 30, meaning that week's lows of 2,450 should not be challenged again, especially with the extraordinary action by the Fed since then and flattening of the curve on COVID-19," said Wilson.
JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) analyst Marko Kolanovic was similarly optimistic that the S&P 500 would rebound and reach an all-time high by next year.
Kostin's bullish outlook came with a caveat, however. The bounceback of the stock market would be hindered by any potential "second wave" of infections. "If the U.S. does not experience a second surge in infections after the economy reopens, the 'do whatever it takes' stance of policymakers means the equity market is unlikely to make new lows." Kostin said.
The danger of a second wave of infections, which is a possible outcome of rescinding stay-at-home orders too early, and may even occur if stay-at-home orders remain in place, has not been lost on state and federal authorities, despite President Trump's eagerness to "reopen" the United States as soon as possible. Many state governors have voiced their intent to keep states closed down until it is safe to do so.
While keeping states closed longer would inevitably stall long-term economic recovery, doing so could prevent a second wave that would wreak far more havoc on the economy. Continued government intervention while states remained closed will likely prevent a return to the massive single-day index drops seen throughout the initial outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic, something reflected in the newfound bullish attitudes of major firms like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan.