Google faces the daunting prospect of altering past deals that accounted for a substantial chunk of its revenue after a federal judge ruled on Monday that its parent company, Alphabet Inc.
What Happened: U.S. District Court Judge Amit Mehta moved the antitrust lawsuit into a remedy discovery phase. As a result, potential changes Google must implement will be explored, according to JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth in a Tuesday note.
The lawsuit specifically targets Alphabet's search distribution agreements with Apple Inc
Why It Matters: Alphabet had revenue of more than $84 billion in the quarter ending June 30, touting 13.6% growth. The company generated around $328 billion in revenue over the last twelve months. That's up 13.38% year-over-year.
The ruling against Google threatens a significant portion of this revenue. After all, its search distribution agreements have long ensured that Google remains the default search engine for millions of users.
"Roughly 50% of all general search queries in the US flow through a search access point covered by one of the challenged contracts," Anmuth notes, illustrating the potential impact on Alphabet's bottom line.
Anmuth posits three possible scenarios for Apple devices:
- Non-Exclusive Consumer Choice Model: Google might pay less in traffic acquisition costs (TAC) while still retaining significant market share.
- Default Shift to Competitors: Microsoft Corp
(MSFT ) or OpenAI could become the new defaults. - Apple's Own Search Engine: Apple's potential development or acquisition of its own search capabilities is viewed as a costly option.
Market Reactions: Google shares didn't plummet following the judge's ruling, leaving many investors puzzled. Anmuth provides insight into why the market didn't react more negatively:
- De-Risking Effect: Google shares are already down 17% from recent highs, which some see as having absorbed the blow.
- Appeal Process: Anmuth notes that "Google will likely appeal, pushing out timing." He sees potential remedies as undetermined, providing a buffer period before any concrete financial impacts.
- Potential Silver Linings: A non-exclusive consumer choice model may mitigate the damage or even bolster Google's profitability.
What's Next: Apple could potentially pivot to deeper partnerships with Microsoft and OpenAI.
"We worry more about Apple partnering more deeply w/both MSFT and OpenAI, particularly following the integration of ChatGPT into iOS18," Anmuth says.
Microsoft's Bing recently introduced generative search and OpenAI is testing a Search GPT prototype. The financial implications of such a shift are profound.
However, Google's payment to Apple was a staggering $20 billion in 2022, a figure that Microsoft and OpenAI would find challenging to match.
Anmuth points out, "As noted in the ruling, Google concluded that MSFT would have to pay Apple 122% of Bing's revenue share simply to match Google's payout to Apple."