Alphabet Inc.'s (GOOGL  ) (GOOG  ) Waymo has established a commanding lead in the autonomous vehicle market with over 2 million paid robotaxi rides across multiple U.S. cities, Gary Black, Managing Partner at The Future Fund LLC notes.

What Happened: "Many investors argue Google's Waymo is way ahead in the robotaxi race," Black wrote Sunday on X, noting Waymo's operations in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Phoenix.

Meanwhile, Amazon.com Inc.'s (AMZN  ) Zoox is preparing to launch paid services in San Francisco and Las Vegas, positioning itself as a contender for second place against Tesla Inc. (TSLA  ), which "still hasn't been approved for paid ride-hailing on public roadways without humans behind the wheel," Black stated.

In China, Baidu Inc. (BIDU  ) has already completed 9 million paid robotaxi rides across four major Chinese cities and is expanding to dozens more, including Hong Kong.

Black emphasized that "unsupervised autonomy is table stakes for all automotive manufacturers" - a requirement to remain competitive, similar to smartphone features following Apple Inc.'s (AAPL  ) iPhone launch.

Why It Matters: When asked about Tesla's potential advantage with 7 million vehicles worldwide, Black noted that Tesla has not demonstrated Level 4 or 5 autonomy, which hinders approval for unsupervised deployment in most jurisdictions.

Black acknowledged Tesla's superior scaling capabilities but expressed concern about "a lack of marketing skills" - a sentiment echoed in his praise of Apple's marketing as crucial to its success.

The competition intensifies as Waymo expands in Santa Monica, with investment manager Ross Gerber recently describing Waymo's performance as significantly superior to Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology, which he compared to "a 12-year-old driving."

Industry analysts remain cautious, with Goldman Sachs projecting limited initial robotaxi revenue for Tesla of approximately $115 million by 2027.