With 2020 fast approaching, entertainment industrial media all predict that box office revenue in North America will most likely hit $11.45 billion for 2019, a decline of 3.6 percent from 2018's record bounty of $11.88 billion.
A 3.6 percent to 4.0 percent fall would be the biggest year-over-year decline since 2014, when domestic revenue tumbled a steep 5.1 percent over 2013 to $10.36 billion. The North American box office rebounded in a major way in 2015, rising 7.5 percent to $11.13 billion.
In the lead-up to Christmas, the box office was in the midst of a nearly 5% slump - the sharpest drop in half a decade. Many attribute the loss to the fact that a significant number of potential moviegoers now stay home and consume their filmed entertainment via VOD or streaming. In addition, some blame Disney on their unrealistic historical performance that somehow cannibalize the income of other Hollywood companies.
Among all major Hollywood studios, Disney (NYSE: DIS) accounts for more than 35 percent of domestic market share, an unheard-of statistic. Presently, seven of the top 10-grossing titles domestically belong to the Mickey Mouse studio, while six of its releases have grossed north of $1 billion globally. The all-star team includes Avengers: Endgame, which supplanted Avatar to become the top-grossing film of all time with $2.79 billion in worldwide ticket sales.
By contrast, Disney's rival studios shifted some of their biggest potential earners out of 2019 and into 2020. Warner Brothers (NYSE: TWX), Paramount (NYSE: PGRE) and Universal all held back potential blockbuster offerings until after Disney had released their biggest and brightest. Their slate include Top Gun: Maverick, Wonder Woman 1984, and No Time to Die.
At the same time, analysts expect global ticket sales to match, or outperform, last year's all-time high of $41.1 billion. Among all global markets, China's box office is the most prominent and expected to reach 65 billion yuan ($9.27 billion) this year. Despite the so called "cold winter" in the Chinese film industry, box office collections exceeded the total revenue for last year (60.7 billion yuan) on Dec 13.