Formal impeachment proceedings began in September 2019 against U.S. President Donald Trump amid a whistleblower account that Trump had conspired with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky against former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden. If proven that Trump asked the Ukrainian president to investigate Biden on multiple occasions, this could officially confirm foreign interference in U.S. presidential elections.
Naturally, general concern exists regarding what kind of impact impeachment hearings and impeachment itself could have on the stock market. The president himself tweeted concern: "If they actually did this the markets would crash." But analysts aren't exactly convinced of the direct impact between impeachment and the market.
When President Richard Nixon's impeachment inquiry began in 1973, the S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) fell 11% over that next month, even more over that next year, down 33.4%, according to The Huffington Post. Jonathan Bird, owner of Farnam Financial, says, "On the surface, this suggests that impeachment had a major impact on stocks, but there were other major factors that had far more relevance for businesses and their stock prices."
In the case of Trump, another major factor of how the market may be affected is likely whether impeachment will impact trade negotiations with China, as the U.S.-China trade deal is one of the leading determining factors of the stock market today.
Compared to what occurred with Nixon, the stock market was impacted differently with President Bill Clinton's impeachment proceedings. While initially the S&P 500 fell 19.4%, that dip was only temporary. Stocks actually went up during the impeachment process. Barson Financial Planning President David Barson explains, "During this period, we experienced a rising U.S. stock market," with stocks up 28% between the start of Clinton's impeachment in 1998 and when the Senate acquitted him in 1999. Again, there were other factors at play during that time.
Clearly some impeachments proceedings in the past have correlated with a dip in the stock market while others preceded a market surge. According to analysts, that goes to show that there's more to the health of the stock market than a presidential impeachment.
According to Chris Zaccarelli, CIO for Independent Advisor Alliance, "Corporate earnings, the Federal Reserve, and trade news will still be at the forefront-that's really what's driving the market at this point."
Granted, impeachment proceedings may have an indirect effect on the stock market, especially depending on the outcome and how that may affect the 2020 presidential elections. However, since there's more to the market than impeachment, and considering that the process can take quite a while to conclude with it already being the end of 2019 at this point, impeachment may not be such a hugely critical issue to the stock market as some people may think.