Monthly jobs reports are usually a major metric of American markets, indicating consumer confidence and the health of the economy. However, thanks to the recent government shutdown and the 800,000 workers who have been furloughed, the January jobs report may be immensely skewed.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics compiles its report using the pay week starting at the 12th of each month. Thus, if the shutdown continues through next week, these 800,000 workers will not be counted in the report which, would cause the first decline in job stats since September of 2010.
According to the Pew Research Center, "The Bureau of Labor Statistics is fully operational, as it is part of the Labor Department (which was funded back in September). That means the inflation report for December, scheduled to be released Jan. 11, is on track."
There is, however, still uncertainty surrounding the January jobs report: "But plans for the January jobs report, data for which are supposed to be gathered next week, are still uncertain: The BLS conducts the payroll survey of employers itself, but the Current Population Survey (which generates the data used to calculate the unemployment rate) is a joint effort with the Census Bureau."
That said, investors have priced in the large dip in employment into their trading strategies due to everyone's periodic expectation of the jobs report. At most, the stats are expected to have a light effect on the markets. Any impact would undoubtedly correct itself next month, assuming the shutdown doesn't persist.
"And so what we'll say, if we were to see that negative number: 'Well sure, it was negative, but if you adjust for the furlough, it looks like another plus-200 month or something like that,'" said Council of Economic Advisers chairman Kevin Hassett.
Other important government data points that are more severely affected include The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which have temporarily ceased all operations and are unlikely to even get a report out. This may lead the market into some murkier waters than expected, though traders seem to have accounted for slight uncertainty.