The global airline industry has had a rough year and a half since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, but there appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
The IATA, which represents nearly 300 airlines--including American Airlines (NASDAQ: AAL), Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL), Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) and United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAL)--that operate more than 80% of global air traffic, forecasted on Monday that the industry will return to profitability in 2023.
However, there are still a few bumps in the road to recovery for commercial airlines. The IATA said industry losses in 2021 will be worse than previously projected, now totalling $51.8 billion, widening from a prior forecast of $47.7 billion. Net losses in 2020 were 137.7 billion, which were also higher than the IATA's forecast of $126.4 billion posted earlier this year. That total brings net losses from the pandemic so far to more than $200 billion.
Still, the IATA sees better industry recovery due to the success of effective COVID vaccines and the easing of international travel restrictions tied to the pandemic. The IATA forecasts that total passenger numbers will rise to 3.4 billion in 2022 compared to the projected 2.3 billion this year due to the lifting of more pandemic-era restrictions.
"People have not lost their desire to travel as we see in solid domestic market resilience. But they are being held back from international travel by restrictions, uncertainty and complexity," said Willie Walsh, IATA's Director General during the group's annual meeting on Monday. "More governments are seeing vaccinations as a way out of this crisis. We fully agree that vaccinated people should not have their freedom of movement limited in any way. In fact, the freedom to travel is a good incentive for more people to be vaccinated."
"Governments must work together and do everything in their power to ensure that vaccines are available to anybody who wants them," Walsh added. "Aviation is resilient and resourceful, but the scale of this crisis needs solutions that only governments can provide."