IBM (Nasdaq: IBM) shares jumped 6% following the company's Q4 earnings report which showed a bigger than expected increase in revenue and beat on the bottom-line. IBM has been a major underperformer and after being the original tech pioneer for much of the past decade has missed out on the latest waves of tech innovation on the consumer and enterprise front.
The stock's underperformance is clearly seen when looking at its long-term chart. Over the last decade, the stock price is down by 35%. This is despite the company paying an above average dividend of nearly 5% and having a healthy amount of share buybacks. The company has been criticized as over the last 25 years, it's bought back nearly $200 billion in shares.
Of course, this has turned out to be a poor investment as the company's entire market cap is now $120 billion. Many critics contend that the money would have been better spent in search of growth opportunities rather than financial engineering.
Inside the Numbers
Given this backdrop, it's understandable why investors are paying close attention to see if there are any signs of reversal with these trends. In Q4, IBM reported $3.35 in earnings per share, topping expectations of $3.30 per share. Revenue also beat at $16.70 billion, vs. $15.96 billion. EPS was nearly double of what was reported in last year's Q4, while revenue was about 15% lower.
The company also completed the spinout of its managed infrastructure services unit, Kyndryl (NYSE: KD) which is down significantly from its initial price of $45. Some aspect of IBM's revenue gain is attributed to this spinoff.
However, Q4 marked the company's fastest revenue growth since Q3 2011. It's also a validation of the turnaround efforts of new CEO Arvind Krishnan. He reiterated in the conference call that the company should continue to grow at a mid-single-digit growth rate and should also achieve free cash flow between $10 billion and $10.5 billion.
In terms of IBM's biggest challenge, Krishnan pointed to the tight labor market: "I'll use the word demographics on the skill shortage that is endemic in technology now. And that is sort of playing in. By the way, I don't believe that the skill shortage is because of COVID. I do believe COVID may have exacerbated or created a pull-in of those demographics, but those I think are going to last us for the decade."
Despite its bump in growth, IBM shares continue to look like a "value trap" with its low P/E but lack of traction in newer, growing markets.