In 2018, President Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Iran nuclear deal and began imposing sanctions against the country. One of Iran's primary methods of retaliation over the years has been pushing the agreement's limits on uranium enrichment. Now, as tensions between the two countries increases, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has announced Iran will no longer be following the deal. The agreement has more than two signatories, however, and now three of those signatories, France, the UK, and Germany, are triggering the diplomatic 'dispute mechanism' in the deal.
The 2015 Iran nuclear deal was put in place to restrict Iran's ability to enrich uranium in an effort to keep Iran from building a nuclear weapon. The deal was signed by the U.S., Britain, France, Germany, China, Russia, and Iran, but faced opposition from many, most notably future U.S. president Donald Trump. Trump disliked the deal from the get go, and in 2018, he pulled out of the deal. He also began imposing sanctions against Iran. In response, Iran has repeatedly surpassed the limits put in place by the 2015 agreement.
Tensions in the ramped up significantly after the killing of top Iranian official Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani by U.S. drone strike. The Trump Administration ordered the killing, but their reasoning for doing so has been somewhat unclear. The Administration didn't wait to get congressional approval and their explanations have been unsatisfying to many lawmakers, Republican and Democrat alike. In order to head off any similar actions in the future, there have been bipartisan attempts in both the House and Senate to pass resolutions limiting presidential war powers.
The killing of Soleimani, a well loved Iranian figure, briefly united the citizens of Iran. After the assassination, Iran announced they would no longer be abiding by the enrichment limits put in place by the 2015 deal but that they would still be willing to negotiate with their European partners. Even more importantly, they stood by their promises not to seek a nuclear weapon. In an announcement likely to angry all members of the nuclear deal, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Iran would be enriching uranium at higher levels than they were before the deal was put in place.
However, that wasn't Iran's only retaliation for Soleimani's death. On Jan. 8, Iran targeted two U.S. military bases on Iraqi soil with over a dozen ballistic missiles. The attack resulted in zero casualties, largely because Iran warned the necessary parties beforehand and chose their targets carefully, but that just makes the horrible accident that occurred even more confusing.
On the same night as the attack on the U.S. bases, a Ukrainian plane carrying 176 passengers, many of them Iranian, was shot down within minutes of taking off from Tehran's airport. Iran denied involvement, insisting the plane crashed because of a mechanical failure. But after three days filled with international media coverage, Iran finally admitted they had caused the crash. Video shows the plane being hit by two missiles about 20 seconds apart. The Iranian military said the accidental attack was caused by "human error". A person who had recorded a video of the plane being hit was arrested soon after the crash by the military's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. The accident and the Iranian response led to massive unrest in the country and pockets of anti-government protests.
Now, in the midst of all of this chaos in Iran, the three European signatories to the 2015 nuclear deal are formally accusing Iran of breaking that agreement. This comes after Trump called on some of the signatories to pull out of the deal entirely. France, Germany, and the UK put out a joint statement on Tuesday announcing they would "trigger the dispute settlement".
"We have therefore been left with no choice, given Iran's actions, but to register today our concerns that Iran is not meeting its commitments under the JCPoA."
This formal complaint could lead to reimposed sanctions on Iran by the United Nations. This definitely seems to be what the Trump Administration is hoping for. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin went on CNBC Wednesday morning to reiterate the Administration's intentions to push for the renewal of U.N. sanctions rather than further negotiations with Iran.
However, not all signatories of the JCPoA agree with the decision to put the Iranian nuclear deal in dispute. Russian foreign ministry said in a statement, ""We do not rule out that the thoughtless actions of the Europeans could lead to a new escalation around the Iranian nuclear accord." Russia and China have both announced that they won't recognize the reimposition of UN sanctions.
In response to the joint European announcement, Rouhani accused the leaders of Germany, France, and the UK of siding with the U.S., and threatened retaliation if sanctions were renewed. "Today, the American soldier is in danger, tomorrow the European soldier could be in danger," President Hassan Rouhani said in a speech.
Still, Iran seems to be interested in renegotiating the deal with their European partners. President Rouhani has made it clear that all of the actions they've taken are reversible. Still, this is a difficult position for Iran to be in. Much of the unrest in Iran isn't new. The Iranian economy has been suffering since the U.S. started putting sanctions in place back in 2018. Now, with the European signatories of the nuclear deal invoking resolution mechanisms, the possibility of Iran getting assistance from an outside lifeline is looking less and less likely. Spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Abbas Mousavi told state-run Press TV that the three European countries should "prepare themselves for potential consequences, of which they have been notified" if they move towards reimposing sanctions.