Crude oil prices are on the rise. From late February to mid-March, we spiked higher from $90 per barrel to over $135 per barrel as Russia's invasion of Ukraine became a reality, and Western countries passed sanctions.
Over the next few months, we saw a consolidation in oil prices especially as there was rising recession risk due to the lockdowns in China. But in a bigger picture sense, it was impressive that oil prices managed to hold onto the bulk of their gains even with this bearish headwind.
In regards to the recession debate, there remains a question about whether the 'softness' in the data is more of a healthy rotation in the economy to prioritize services consumption after goods consumption was elevated, and services consumption was depressed for so many quarters. Oil's price action supports this theory as do the remarks by bank CEOs about the low default rate and reports from travel companies about record bookings.
And, some of the factors leading to more energy demand and reduced supply have nothing to do with the economy but instead are due to geopolitics. Given these factors, it's fair to conclude that the bull market in energy still has legs.
Therefore, investors should also consider alternative energy stocks especially as the sector has been thrashed by the bear market in growth stocks. Many of the companies in the sector have grown their earnings and revenues during this downturn, while the sector's economics continue to be more attractive with higher energy prices. Another factor in the improved economics is better battery technology which means lower costs and more efficiency.
Spending on alternative energy is also part of the solution for Europe as it looks to pivot away from Russian energy for its power needs. This was evident as the European Union fast-tracked legislation that simplified the permitting process for new solar and wind installations.
With so many major parts of the market like tech and consumer discretionary struggling, investors will have to get more creative to find outperformance. Alternative energy stocks currently are cheap, oversold, have positive cash flow (for the most part), and have meaningful catalysts in place for more growth.