In his opening remarks at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell offered insights into the economic outlook and monetary policy.
"We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate," Powell stated, reflecting the Fed's vigilant stance on getting back to its price stability goal.
Powell emphasized the commitment to keep rates at a restrictive level until a sustainable decline in inflation is observed.
Acknowledging the journey ahead, the Fed chair said, "We have a long way to go even with the latest lower readings." He also highlighted the challenges ahead, saying, "Core inflation is still elevated, and there is ground to cover to achieve price stability."
Powell reiterated the cautious approach the Fed is poised to adopt, stating, "We will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or, instead, to hold the policy rate constant and await further data."
He underscored the Fed's vigilance toward possible divergences from projected economic patterns. Should evidence of sustained growth above projected levels emerge, it could jeopardize the advancement in inflation control, potentially necessitating a more stringent approach to monetary policy.
Reaffirming the Fed's inflation objective, Powell stated, "Two percent is and will remain our inflation target."
Market Response: Rate Hike Expectations Evolve After Powell's Speech
Powell's remarks have prompted a recalibration of market expectations. The odds of a rate hike in September have surged to 21.5%, while the likelihood of a rate hike by November has risen to 52%, according to data from CME Group.