Macy's (NYSE: M) has suffered in recent years due to several factors. There's the hollowing out of the middle class which is hurting retailers in that category despite overall growth in retail spending every year for the past two decades except 2008 and 2009.
Another factor is a decline in retail foot traffic as online sales have boomed. This has been another differentiator between retailers that are thriving and those that are struggling to survive. Macy's online presence hasn't been as strong as others like Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), Walmart (NYSE: WMT) or Target (NYSE: TGT).
Inside the Numbers
In the first quarter, Macy's revenue was $3.05 billion which was a 50% decline from the same quarter in 2019. It also reported a per-share net loss of $2.03. These results were in-line with analysts' expectations. In 2019, the company earned $0.44 in the same quarter. Notably, Macy's didn't provide any guidance for the upcoming quarter given the number of uncertainties.
The company has been aggressively cost-cutting as it laid off 3,500 workers and has been closing many locations. It's also been beefing up its online sales operation and turning stores into pickup locations for online orders to mixed success.
Another negative was the drop in international tourism which isn't expected to recover anytime soon. In some ways, the coronavirus is forcing Macy's to make dramatic changes it should have made many years ago.
Coronavirus Impact
These factors had already resulted in Macy's stock dropping from $55 in May 2015 to $16 in February 2020. So, the coronavirus was a negative shock in an already bleak situation. From its pre-coronavirus levels, Macy's dropped to a low of $4.3.
The stock did manage to rebound off its lows as coronavirus case counts fell, and there was optimism about the economy opening back up again and returning to pre-coronavirus levels. It traded in a range between $4 and $6 until the stock gained more than 100% from mid-May to early June. In part, this was also due to stock market sentiment getting frothy, and nearly every depressed stock made a big move,
However, in recent weeks, the stock has given this back and declined by 50%. It's now firmly back in its range from the Spring. This is appropriate because there's a lot of indecision with the stock. As its earnings report shows, the company is bleeding money. If it can survive this downturn, then it has a chance of recovering if online sales continue picking up, and the world returns to normal.
However if the economy and retail shopping continue to be impaired, then Macy's won't likely be able to survive in its current state. Currently, Macy's has $1.53 billion in cash which means if revenues stay at current levels it can survive for a little more than a year.