Stocks rose higher Thursday as new labor market data lessened growing fears of an imminent recession from earlier in the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied over 680 points, while the S&P 500 Index advanced over 2% in its best day since November 2022 and Nasdaq Composite added about 1.8%.
Here's how the market settled on Thursday:
S&P 500 Index (NYSE: SPY): +2.30% or +119.81 points to 5,319.31
Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA): +1.76% or +683.04 points to 39,446.49
Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: QQQ): +2.87% or +464.21 points to 16,660.02
In Economic News:
Jobless Claims dipped lower last week, helping to assuage growing fears of a weakening labor market sparked by last week's surprising July jobs report. Initial unemployment filings totaled a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ended Aug. 3, the Labor Department reported Thursday, marking a decline of 17,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised print and coming in below estimates.
Beneath the headline, continuing claims, which are tracked a week behind, ticked higher to 1.875 million, its highest level since November 2021. Moreover, the four-week average for jobless claims rose to 240,750, its highest total in almost a year.
Separately, JPMorgan increased its recession probability for the U.S. economy to 35% by the end of the year, up from the 25% forecast the bank shared in its mid-year outlook. The bank maintained its off for a recession by the second half of 2025 at 45%.
Despite the increased probability, however, JPMorgan Chief Global Economist Bruce Kasman wrote in a note to clients that all investors should not assume a hard recession is coming, as "the vulnerabilities normally associated with a recession break -- sustained profit margin or credit market stress, and energy or financial market shocks -- are notably absent," Kasman wrote in a note to clients, noting that the probability increase for near-term recession risk is modest.
On the Earnings Front:
Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) reported strong second-quarter earnings on Thursday and raised its full-year revenue outlook by $3 billion as sales of its diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss injection Zepbound jumped during the quarter. The pharmaceutical giant now expects full-year revenue between $45.4 billion and $46.6 billion, and it also raised its full-year adjusted earnings range to between $16.10 to $16.60, up from prior guidance of $13.50 to $14.00 per share.
"We just see unbelievable demand, and we're not even trying that hard to promote this drug," CEO David Ricks told CNBC in an interview on Thursday. "What you're seeing is just consumer organic demand here as we've shipped more product, as we bring more supply online in the United States."
Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ: WBD) shares were under pressure on Thursday after the entertainment company reported a $9.1 billion write-down on its TV networks amid its disappointing second-quarter results.
"It's fair to say that even two years ago market valuations and prevailing conditions for legacy media companies were quite different than they are today, and this impairment acknowledges this and better aligns our carrying values with our future outlook," CEO David Zaslav told analysts during the company's earnings call on Wednesday, adding that the company is shifting its focus to growing its studios and streaming units.
Bumble (NASDAQ: BMBL) shares cratered on Thursday after the company issued weak forward guidance after its second-quarter revenue miss, as it is met with waning consumer discretionary spending across its dating apps. The company expects third-quarter revenue between $269 million to $275 million, compared with analyst estimates for about $296 million, according to LSEG data.
For Friday:
Market participants will turn their attention to earnings reports from companies including Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD), Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) and Expedia Group (NASDAQ: EXPE).