Both the Whitehouse and democratic lawmakers are claiming victory this week after reaching an agreement on a new tri-lateral trade agreement between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada. The United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) was first signed by the leaders of these three countries last November, but the new version hasn't been ratified by the three countries' legislative bodies. With heat coming from multiple angles, the deal still seems likely to be approved.
The USMCA is an updated version of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), a deal which eliminated trade barriers between the three nations. The agreement was reached after more than a year of deadlock in negotiations.
The deal is meant to improve upon NAFTA which many Republicans saw as a "job killer" and blamed it for businesses moving to countries south of the U.S. border. Democrats have been divided on NAFTA but agree that the USMCA is a vast improvement. The agreement includes provisions designed to bring manufacturers back north. by requiring 40% to 45% of cars be made in countries that pay at least $16 per hour, meaning the U.S. and Canada.The agreement was also spurred on by a labor-law overhaul passed in Mexico in April designed to make it easier for workers in Mexico to form unions.
Despite the volatility surrounding impeachment, lawmakers came together in a bipartisan effort to get this agreement finished. However, the process wasn't without tension. Both parties had conditions they wanted to be included in the deal and compromises were made. Now, both parties are claiming this as a win, but it arguably is a much larger win for Republicans. Getting this deal passed will be a major victory for Trump and something which he will undoubtedly talk about frequently on the campaign trail in 2020. As President Donald Trump said in a tweet, "It will be the best and most important trade deal ever made by the USA."
However, based on the contents of the deal itself, many lawmakers seem to feel Democrats won this fight. "We ate their lunch," Nancy Pelosi told fellow democratic lawmakers in a closed-door meeting. Some GOP members like Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey feel the agreement lies too far left saying its a "step backward" for free trade. Most lawmakers agree that the USMCA is better than its predecessor, but there is some strong opposition to the deal.
Most importantly, the Mexican government is accusing the U.S. government of "blindsiding" them by including provisions to send up to five U.S. attaches to monitor labor conditions in Mexico. The labor practices of Mexico have been some of the most problematic sticking points in the treaty negotiation. Democrats and American unions wanted a guarantee that the new union-friendly labor-law in Mexico will be enforced. In the past, unions in Mexico have largely been controlled by businesses and politicians who limited workers' wages.
Undersecretary for North America in the Foreign Ministry Jesus Seade told reporters on Saturday that this condition was "never mentioned to Mexico-never... And, of course, we don't agree" because this would violate the country's sovereignty. In even more blunt language, Seade tweeted on Sunday "We gained a lot in the trilateral talks, and because of this, the U.S. needs 'extras' that are NOT PART OF THE TREATY in order to sell it to its domestic audience."
This complaint emerged only after Mexico's Senate voted overwhelmingly to approve the USMCA, and critics in Mexico now blame Seade for being "tricked". According to him, however, these attaches aren't a problem because "Mexican law doesn't allow them."
Canada and the United States have yet to ratify the treaty, and a vote to ratify is unlikely to happen before the new year.