Traders are laser-focused on November's jobs data, slated for release this Friday, as one of the last pivotal data points - along with next week's inflation report - that could shape the Federal Reserve's decision on a potential rate cut at its Dec. 18 meeting.
With market odds sitting at about a 70% chance for a 25-basis-point reduction, the stakes are high.
Here's what the numbers need to show to lock in the move.
Nonfarm Payrolls Expected To Rebound Sharply From October Disruptions
After October's disappointing gain of just 12,000 jobs - a number heavily skewed by hurricanes and strikes - economists expect November will reflect stronger job growth as the effects of weather and strikes fade.
Consensus estimates peg November's nonfarm payroll growth at 200,000, according to TradingEconomics.
Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler indicated October's disruptions may have caused 100,000 to 120,000 jobs to go unaccounted for, which could now materialize in November.
Private payrolls data, however, painted a slightly murkier picture. The ADP National Employment Report for November - which uses private payrolls data from about 25 million employees - showed that U.S. businesses added 146,000 jobs, down from 184,000 in October and slightly below expectations of 150,000.
Economists expect the unemployment rate to tick up from 4.1% in October to 4.2% in November.
Average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, down from 0.4% in October, and show a 3.9% annual increase, a slight cooling from 4.0% previously.
What It Means For Interest Rates
If November's report reveals softer-than-expected payroll growth, a slight rise in unemployment, and wage gains that align with or fall below forecasts, expectations for a December rate cut would likely firm up.
In this case, policymakers might view the cooling labor market and tempered wage growth as evidence that inflation pressures are easing, paving the way for monetary easing.
On the other hand, a sharp November payroll increase combined with stronger-than-expected wage growth could force traders to recalibrate their bets. A hot jobs report would suggest a resilient, tight labor market, potentially reducing the urgency for the Fed to cut rates and increasing the chances of a pause.
Analyst Projections
Comerica expects a robust 250,000 jobs to be added in November but anticipates the unemployment rate will edge higher to 4.2%.
This slight uptick, they said, could reflect previously sidelined workers - those affected by October's hurricanes and other one-off disruptions - returning to the labor market.
Analysts at JPMorgan are even more optimistic, forecasting a 275,000 job gain for November.
They indicate the recent slowdown was "almost entirely" due to temporary issues, including hurricanes and the high-profile Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) strike, which suppressed October's growth by as much as 125,000 jobs. According to JPMorgan, "the underlying trend in job growth hasn't changed much from earlier months," signaling a labor market still firing on most cylinders.
Goldman Sachs is slightly more measured but still optimistic, projecting 235,000 jobs added in November.
The firm highlighted "big data" indicators suggesting a pick-up in hiring momentum and estimated the resolution of hurricane disruptions could contribute roughly 50,000 jobs to the total.
BNP Paribas is taking a more cautious tone, forecasting 225,000 jobs but warning that special factors - such as election-related hiring and the resolution of the Boeing strike - could obscure the true underlying strength of the labor market.
They described the likely outcome as "just ambiguous enough" to keep the December rate cut as their base case: strong enough to signal growth, but not so robust as to derail Fed easing expectations.