The economy's recovery continues. In October, the US added 638,000 jobs with the unemployment rate falling to 6.9%. Both figures were above consensus as economists were looking for 530,000 and 7.7%. It was a slight deceleration from the 638,000 jobs The areas of the economy showing the most strength were hospitality and business services, while the government accounted for the most job losses.
It'll be interesting to see how this report impacts the stimulus timetable. Of course, the election was a much bigger factor this week. But, it's likely that this reduces the urgency of Congress to act, and it strengthens the hand of many Republicans who have been arguing that another stimulus package may not be necessary. So, it's not surprising that long-term interest rates continued their decline following the report.
Inside the Numbers
Overall, the economy's positive momentum continues. It still hasn't been negatively affected by the rising case counts. Although, some high-frequency indicators are starting to show signs of flattening in terms of their rate of growth. Now that the election is over, it's likely that this becomes the major driving force for the stock market.
There are some clues in the report that the economy's rate of growth may be impacted but not the direction. Labor force participation rate increased 0.3% to 61.7%. Another positive aspect of the report was the household survey with the total employment level rising by 2.24 million and the employment-to-population ratio increasing by 0.8 percentage points to 57.4%. There was 1.52 million less unemployed level and 541,000 people dropped out of the labor force.
Government jobs continues to be a point of weakness with an overall decline of 268,000 jobs. This was expected as local and state governments are facing a situation with dramatically plunging tax revenues. There had been expectations that a second stimulus package would provide relief to state and local governments, but nothin has materialized yet. Unlike the federal government, state and local governments have less ability to borrow to make up for any shortfalls.
However, government job figures look worse due to the loss of 147,000 Census workers. It also painted a more positive picture for private job creation which continues to accelerate at 906,000 which is better than September's 892,000. Another positive development is that the long-term unemployment rate declined which had been increasing since the Spring.