Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, oil prices have skyrocketed, reaching the highest level in more than a decade. Meanwhile, Russian forces have begun targeting Ukranian oil refineries and pipelines in the country, leading to forced shutdowns and evacuations as hundreds of thousands of refugees flee to Poland and other countries in the area.
Russia is one of the leading energy producers in the world, and oil supplies were tight even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On March 1, West Texas Intermediate (NYSE: USO) crude futures, the benchmark for oil in the U.S., reached $112.51 per barrel, the highest price since 2011.
The global oil benchmark Brent crude (NYSE: BNO) topped $113.58 per barrel, a record-high since 2014, following an announcement from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) stating that it would not be changing its oil production plans. OPEC+ includes Russia as a member, and there have been calls to cut off the country's oil exports.
"Crude prices can't stop going higher as a very tight oil market will likely see further risk to supplies as the War in Ukraine unfolds," senior market analyst with Oanda, Ed Moya, told CNBC. "Brent crude could surge to the $120 level if the oil market starts to think it is likely that sanctions will be placed on Russian energy."
So far, Russian oil has not faced sanctions, but sanctions on other Russian industries, banking especially, have made investors reluctant about Russian energy. The Russian central bank is under sanctions from the U.S. and its allies, and major payment service providers like Visa (NYSE: V) and Mastercard (NYSE: MA) have started blocking use by Russian banks.
"Whatever happens with oil will reverberate across all the other markets ... even though the sanctions so far are not aimed at restricting oil. They are restricting activities by buyers and financiers of oil," IHS Markit vice chairman Daniel Yergin told CNBC. "Russian supplies will be disrupted, but whether they're manageable or larger will really be determined by events and by the risks buyers and suppliers are willing to take."
Massive oil companies Shell (NYSE: SHL) and BP (NYSE: BP) have already announced that they will be selling their stakes in the Russian natural gas industry, representing billions of dollars in investments. The two companies stated that they are firmly opposed to Russia's actions in Ukraine. Their declarations are expected to put more pressure on other gas giants like ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) to sell their Russian holdings.
These major oil producers were crucial to the development of natural gas technology in Russia. However, while Russian energy holdings were a popular development opportunity for investors about a decade ago, increasing climate change concerns and the sanctions placed against the country following the 2014 annexation of Crimea have made Russian energy much less attractive.
While OPEC+ hasn't changed its plans, the 31 members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) have agreed to release 60 million barrels of oil.
"Moving forward with the release reflects the magnitude of expected disruptions to global energy markets driven by sanctions on Russia," director Clayton Allen and director of energy, climate, and resources at Eurasia Group told CBS. "Disruptions will also highlight the importance of U.S. domestic production."
Europe especially is reliant on Russian energy, and the recent invasion of Ukraine has revealed the weaknesses of that system. While the European Union has enough energy to last through the winter, the E.U.'s energy commissioner told reporters that they want to become less reliant on other countries.
"We cannot let any third country destabilize our energy markets or influence our energy choices," commissioner Kadri Simson said.
Currently, Russia supplies roughly 40% of the E.U.'s natural gas and more than 25% of its oil.