At a meeting held over the weekend, OPEC and its allies agreed to extend production cuts agreed upon earlier in the year. Despite the production cuts, oil futures still took a downward turn in the aftermath of the meeting.
The meeting of OPEC+, whose members met via video conferencing, was particularly productive despite ongoing price disputes between members and allies of the organization. The organization decided to extend the original April production cut agreement through the end of July. Large oil producers showed concerns that while there is some degree of a price rebound, the threat of another oil market crash still looms large over the global economy. Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the Oil Minister of Saudi Arabia and a member of the Saudi Royal Family, to this end, stated "Demand is returning as big oil-consuming economies emerge from pandemic lockdown. But we are not out of the woods yet."
Despite OPEC+'s plan to cut production, oil futures weren't particularly enthusiastic in the days after the meeting, reflecting concerns that the deal might not be the end of the oil market's troubles. Paramount among the concerns of investors was the chance that the production cuts agreed upon by OPEC+ could be ruined by some producers not adhering to the agreement. Mexico and Libya have both restarted production and together could contribute 400,000 barrels a day, which could dilute the effects of the 9.7-million-barrel production cut in the agreement.
There also exists a significant risk from oil producers in the United States. While American oil producers have kept production low, a bounce-back in oil prices could trigger a likewise production spike to capitalize on the potential to regain lost profits.
Even considering the chances of the production cuts effects being diluted, there is still a great deal of concern that the 10% production cut may not be enough. Not only is oil still being produced in large volumes, a massive supply glut still exists that needs to be dealt with. The supply glut had reached such critical levels previously that oil tankers were being laid up for use as oil storage. The only thing that will fix the supply glut, however, is a rise in demand; production cuts will do nothing to reduce the existing supply.
- https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/06/business/energy-environment/opec-russia-oil-coronavirus.html
- https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/971059/5-things-to-know-about-the-opec-production-cut-extension
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crude-oil-lower-consolidating-opec-080917781.html
- https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/stock-market-shows-signs-of-life-after-jobs-report-oil-futures-drop-after-opec-meeting/article_cce9df4c-a9a5-11ea-9a34-330390950761.html