The Dow and S&P 500 were up slightly as payrolls for August disappointed, showing only 130,000 new jobs created vs. the 180,000 that was forecasted.
This is because payrolls that are below expectations makes it more likely for a Fed rate cut, which usually sends stocks rallying as the cost of borrowing for corporates decreases.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 69.31 points, while the S&P 500 index rose by 2.71 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index on the other hand, slipped 13.75 points, finishing at 8,103.07.
Not only were payrolls lower, but also, substantial downward revisions were made to existing numbers in April and March. This has lowered the overall monthly average for 2019 to stand at 151,000, as compared to the 223,000 figure from last year.
The unemployment rate stayed consistent at 3.7%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.2% YoY. Thus wage growth still remains low. The private sector added only 96,000 jobs. Federal government hiring added 28,000 jobs that were mostly census-related jobs.
This implies that the pace of hiring has slowed, which is somewhat consistent with the fact that wage growth has also slowed and remains sticky due to structural and technological changes.
"Today's jobs report is still a good sign for the labor market, indicating that workers continue to come in off the sidelines," said Daniel Zhao, a senior economist at Glassdoor. "However, the pace of growth has slowed and sectoral weakness in manufacturing and retail don't bode well for an economy dealing with escalating trade tensions."
A big cause for concern is the trade war between the U.S. and China and how it is adversely affecting the manufacturing sector in particular. Higher prices and disrupted supply chains have negatively impacted the sector, which added only 3,000 jobs in August.
Recent Fedspeak has indicated that Powell and his team may react strongly to any "significant" downside risks they see: this includes weak jobs numbers.
"The headline miss is disappointing for investors, but I wouldn't overreact as there is underlying strength to this report, including average weekly hours worked picking up, the labor-force participation rate rising and strong wage growth," said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for State Street Global Advisors.
- https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-poised-to-notch-3rd-straight-gain-as-fridays-crucial-jobs-report-looms-2019-09-06
- https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/may-payrolls-disappoint-fed-to-the-rescue-and-gold-201906111727
- https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jobs-report-august-nonfarm-payrolls-unemployment-rate-economy-2019-9-1028505113