The war in Ukraine is not going as Russia had anticipated. In fact, a Ukraine counteroffensive has done an incredible job of re-winning territory that had been occupied by Russia just a couple of weeks ago.
There have also been constant rumors of incompetence on the battlefield which have been validated by poor, strategic decisions including stretched supply lines that made Russian troops vulnerable. Additionally, there are reports that President Putin is personally directing commanders on the battlefield, another sign that the war is not going well.
We got more confirmation on this from a primetime address by President Putin, where he declared the 'partial mobilization'. This was later confirmed by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov as being around 300,000 troops.
Putin also made some chilling remarks when he said the escalation was necessary as Ukraine was receiving weapons and support from the 'collective West' to 'weaken, isolate, and destroy Russia'.
He also said that Ukraine was menacing Russia with nuclear threats and that Russia would use 'all available means' in its defense and that Russia has its own nuclear arsenal. He added that "This is no bluff. Those who are blackmailing us with nuclear weapons should know - the rose winds can change and blow in their direction."
This open discussion of nuclear weapons is a concerning development but in the near term, we are already seeing the mobilization in effect. Already, there have been videos on social media of people being rounded up on buses with many questioning how competent these troops would be on the battlefield especially given that professional soldiers have fallen short. And, the country is focusing recruitment on rural areas, where support for the war is the strongest.
Putin also announced that there would be referendums on becoming part of Russia in Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine. This is similar to what was done in the Donbas and Crimea.
In response, President Joe Biden at the United Nations said that "Russia has shamelessly violated the core tenets of the United Nations charter". He dismissed Putin's rationale for invading Russia and that its escalation of the war is a sign of weakness.